Will destiny defend the ukulele apology woman (Colleen Ballinger aka Miranda Sings)?
6
150Ṁ692
resolved Jul 7
Resolved
YES

Colleen Ballinger was accused of grooming and instead of a normal response video, she made a song about it:

  • This will resolve to YES if destiny responds to this video/allegations and defends her more than he critizises her.

  • If he doesn't react to it at all this will resolve N/A

  • If he is very critical and condemns her behaviour, then this will resolve to NO.

  • If he only half reacts to it and then says "I don't care" about this, I will resolve this to NO.

  • If destiny comes with a middle of the road "both sides" reaction, I will resolve this market to 50%

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ163
Sort by:

Any suggestions on how to make future markets like this less ambiguous? I guess i should leave out the "i don't care"-clause and besides that some ambiguity is unavoidable in a market like this.

predictedNO

@Agh Idk maybe quantify it, like put weight on the duration he talks about it if he actively reacts to it so having the vid open and pausing to give his opinion, how often he either criticizes or defends said person and maybe if he’s qualifying his position by stating he could change his mind based on x and y or that he could be wrong.

Based on that count all of them together to form a resolution. Ambiguity hard to avoid, think how you are already doing it is good enough tho.

predictedNO

@UFTG Well he kinda said that he super doesn’t care about it

But also defended her a lil by saying he’s not even sure what she did wrong bc people can’t pinpoint it.

So I’m quite unsure myself how this market should resolve

@YE2 yeah, it's a bit ambiguous. I'm leaning towards YES, because he strongly downplayed the accusations against her.

predictedYES

Well he didn't say "I don't care about this so I'm not going to respond". He said "I don't give a fuck" as in this accusation has no merit and the accusers acting like this makes me think there's nothing there (for me to care about).

Listening again and reading the criteria I think more strongly it should be YES.

1. I think he's clearly more on her side and he was directly responding to a question about the allegations.

2. I at least interpret the "I don't care" part of the criteria to mean him not thinking it's worth responding to and as I said above he was using that language more to make a point about how weak accusations like this look when people say x and y.

3. I don't think it was a middle of the road opinion just a standard caveat that with more information he could change his mind or that he could've missed something. I don't think we can argue he was middle of the road.

predictedNO

@Agh Well he did kinda "half react" didn’t have the vid open when he made his statement, indirectly defended her by saying the people accusing her can’t really say what exactly she did wrong following it up by saying "I super don’t care" a couple times.

predictedNO

@YE2 Rewatched the clip. He reacted to the dono for 1min. At the beginning even admitted she might have done sth wrong, then said super don’t care, then indirectly defended her by saying usually when someone has done sth wrong you can say they did x or y but people accusing her say some convoluted bs, followed that up by saying dgaf twice and then to round it up said there could have been stuff he just didn’t see or that he missed.

Imo doesn’t feel strong enough for a he defended her, he did but indirectly cuz he criticized the people making the accusations, said he doesn’t really care about the accusations bc those people can’t pinpoint what she did wrong, and said twice that he could be wrong and there might have been stuff he missed. Id be okey either way it resolves, just wanted to add this

@YE2 Yeah I'm also fine with it resolving either way. Always open to being wrong. I did switch my position after seeing him comment but either way I'm obviously biased now. Here's my last thoughts about the criteria:

This will resolve to YES if destiny responds to this video/allegations and defends her more than he critizises her.

He responded said something like "I don't think Colleen did anything wrong". It wasn't necessary for him to watch the vid so this is clearly fulfilled in my opinion.

I agree he's not bringing up any specifics so his defense is kind of indirect. I don't think the defense being indirect is relevant in regards to the criteria though.

If he doesn't react to it at all this will resolve N/A

Nope

If he is very critical and condemns her behaviour, then this will resolve to NO.

Nope

If he only half reacts to it and then says "I don't care" about this, I will resolve this to NO.

I can see the argument that it being so short makes it a half reaction.

Like I said before about the " I don't care" of it all: He didn't say I don't care about this situation so I'm not going to talk about it, it was used to attack the merits of the allegations saying there was nothing there to care about. I think there's a meaningful distinction there.

If destiny comes with a middle of the road "both sides" reaction, I will resolve this market to 50%

He did caveat but that's something he's always going to do if he's not very well informed. He was clearly on her side but open to changing his mind with new information.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules