Lets say, Shapiro and Destiny have a debate, then surely Shapiro would be the first to bring up a hypothetical scenario?
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resolved Jan 24
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NO

The title was going to be this, but there is a really tight character limit for market titles:

Lets say, hypothetically, Shapiro and Destiny have a debate, and lets say on of them brings up a hypothetical. If such a thing would happen, then surely the most reasonable assumption would be that that person was Ben Shapiro?

  • Resolves yes if in their upcoming debate, Ben Shapiro uses a hypothetical scenario before Destiny does.

  • They don't have to use the literal word "hypothetically"

  • Any hypothetical stated by Lex Fridman doesn't count for this market's purpose even if Destiny or Shapiro extends it.

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sold Ṁ121 of NO

1:35:35 He even recognized it as it was happening lmao https://youtu.be/tYrdMjVXyNg?si=37khCHL2vk3tkGJS

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The line between hypothetical and figure of speech is actually going to be tricky here

bought Ṁ77 of NO

@Tumbles not well defined in the market description unfortunately. I'm not clear how much of a scenario needs to be described and to what extent.

(but the instance below is a hypothetical and not a figure of speech)

bought Ṁ77 of NO

when Ben says things like "if I were Israeli I would feel xyz" that's more a figure of speech than a hypothetical imo

bought Ṁ77 of NO

well, at ~41min while talking about taxes Destiny gave a "so just to understand, if someone gave a massive reduction in tax receipts but they didn't change spending at all, you wouldn't consider that..."
did anyone catch an earlier instance?

bought Ṁ77 of NO

there's also a moment around ~8min when Destiny asks "if you could give every kid an iPad would you...?"
and shortly after it's kind of a somewhat hypothetical non-scenario when he says "I agree that neither of these things might be determinative in that these kids are getting their GEDs and going into the workforce and these kids are becoming engineers..."
and these are technically hypotheticals but they're not richly defined scenarios?
the closest Ben seems to get is kind of supposing what would be in different circumstances, but it's based on statistical patterns. or he says "if I were an alien who came down from outer space.." but if that somehow counts as a hypothetical it comes long after a lot of Destiny examples.
in the absence of any real guidelines/specific qualifier for "bring up a hypothetical scenario" this should definitely resolve to Destiny.

predicted NO

Shapiro doesn’t even use that many hypotheticals, but it’s Destiny’s main act

came here to say this actually - it will be really out of character if this resolves yes

bought Ṁ500 NO from 27% to 17%
bought Ṁ10 of NO

If this is a hypothetical, does this imply that, hypothetically, this market resolves N/A if they do not debate?

@Joshua Hypothetically I would first extend the markets close date. And if it's really clear that the debate isn't happening, I would resolve it N/A.