Between now and December 6th, Destiny will do 20+ debates about Israel-Palestine.
18
197
380
resolved Dec 10
Resolved
YES
  • Each debate has to be a real-time-conversation. Twitter-fights don't count. Responding to chat-messages doesn't count.

  • Doesn't necessarily have to happen on Destiny's stream

  • No minimum length, but the conversation has to be adverserial to count as a debate. E.g. an orbiter just asking him for his opinion is not a debate.

  • If destiny has a debate about a different topic (e.g. Trump-Biden), but that debate veers into the issue of Israel-Palestine, then that debate will still count for this market.

I might give updates about the current count but if I don't, you can kind of keep track of it via the "Last Week on Destiny" spreadsheet

current count:

  1. Debate with Dan Cohen (link) (Nov 8th)

  2. Debate with jstljk on stream (link)

  3. ???

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predicted NO

@Agh I dispute:

Debate 3 with RemTheBathBoi. It's not adversarial. They discuss some books in a friendly way and Rem agrees with everything that could have turned into a dispute. Orbiter convo.

The cut from debate 5 to debate 6 is not as you characterized it. It was a rolling transition like the December 5th debates that you counted as one. Debate 4 was distinctly cut (not just as a video, but socially) so I don't dispute that one.

So that's two that I can honestly say don't fit the description. I appreciate the list of 28 from the spreadsheet, but your standards were slightly more specific than that, hence my (late) diligence. As the biggest No holder I would appreciate a response, but there's no rush at this point.

@Panfilo

I would probably concede on the Rem talk, Destiny pushes back on some points Rem makes but it never really forms into a back-and-forth debate. But I found a replacement debate: It didn't happen on stream, that's why I didn't have it in my initial list: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaeywFwpLPc, so that would keep the count at 20.

About the 5 to 6 transition. The video I linked cuts out a little bit of pause between the two debates. If you look at the live stream there's a much clearer break in between and Destiny even asks Lonerbox if he wants to join the next conversation: https://youtu.be/UNuG0X52_Kw?t=7860

predicted NO

@Agh On the second point, I think I just disagree that it's a new debate because they immediately continue the previous debate's most recent point and then segue into the added folks. It has continuity because of Lonerbox's comments (and indeed the transition is all in the "Paths to Peace" section of the uploaded video). The new joiners are reacting directly to Lonerbox's comments which are reacting directly to Destiny's in the "first" debate, which is what makes me say it's like Demember 5th. But if you see the pause as sufficient, I guess that's that.

I'm resolving this to YES because I counted exactly 20 debates:

  1. 08/11/23 Dan Cohen (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3TrFGITg1M)

  2. 08/11/23 jstljk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkhymQWwoVE&t=24347s)

  3. 09/11/23 RemTheBathBoi (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14o7MyLuYz0&t=4766s)

  4. 12/11/23 SocratesTV (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0Opr2MwK3M)

  5. 12/11/23 LonerBox and quibblesc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqBaJa0a0qc)

  6. 12/11/23 Lycan, SocratesTV and LonerBox (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqBaJa0a0qc)

  7. 16/11/23 Lycan (https://youtu.be/W4aQwlO6-iQ?t=13944)

  8. 17/11/23 Lycan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtP8nTN_mLI&t=8986s)

  9. 20/11/23 AxeHole12 (https://kick.com/video/77516ccf-c47b-4d74-b1ad-d02a0c07ad8d (starting around 6:36))

  10. 21/11/23 AxeHole12 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-HPJgQjSyo&t=4474s)

  11. 23/11/23 AxeHole12 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLWxn10AbvU&t=2707s)

  12. 23/11/23 Vivian Wulf, Beckett and Lycan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLWxn10AbvU&t=18221s)

  13. 01/12/23 Lycan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EafJ85Zuo0c&t=9347s)

  14. 02/12/23 Dylan Burns (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjxQs0Sokd8)

  15. 02/12/23 AxeHole12 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4py29G_P1Ns&t=29622s)

  16. 03/12/23 Anonymous Fan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGOgS7D-p5I&t=7977s)

  17. 03/12/23 Pisco (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGOgS7D-p5I&t=15604s)

  18. 04/12/23 AxeHole12 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6KV9Wy_C5I&t=2501s)

  19. 05/12/23 This Guy,AxeHole12,4THOT,Dr Avi (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ael-2x58Lqc&t=11078s)

  20. 06/12/23 AxeHole12 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lh59C_ZpmvM&t=23956s)

I feel like I have to justify myself here because I'm resolving a 7% market to YES, so here's some additional defense to my resolution:

Even if you reviewed those videos and thought that one of those was in your opinion not a debate, all of those videos have back-and-forths and disagreements and classifying them as "not a debate" would go against the market's description.

Also I counted the December 5th discussion as one debate but I feel like that one could have counted as multiple because it was so long and so many people were dropping in and out.

Additionally there were 8 more talks in the time frame which I didn't want to count as debate, but if I went back over them, some of them could possibly count as debates, at least if I went with the most letter-of-the-law reading of this market's description.

  1. 08/11/23 Talk with LonerBox

  2. 11/11/23 Talk with LonerBox

  3. 19/11/23 ApostateProphet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgyQCkRS4uw)

  4. 19/11/23 Bad Dog (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgyQCkRS4uw)

  5. 21/11/23 dr Avi(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-HPJgQjSyo&t=9469s)

  6. 21/11/23 Natalie Rivera (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-HPJgQjSyo&t=4474s)

  7. 23/11/23 dr Avi (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLWxn10AbvU&t=10437s)

  8. 02/12/23 acre0262 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4py29G_P1Ns&t=8539s)

predicted NO

@Agh Oh great now I have to watch all this shit myself to check you because I spent 1000 mana on a market I thought was resolving days earlier to total consensus.

predicted YES

@Agh is a true hero. They didn't even bet YES before resolving! The honor! The dedication!

@Panfilo I guess everybody saw the market graph going down and just assumed somebody else had done the research, but in actuality nobody did. A quick count of the talks on the linked spreadsheet would have revealed 28 candidates.

That's why I don't feel bad about resolving this Yes and making a bunch of people lose their mana, that's just the risk you take when you blindly bet on a market.

predicted NO

I've already found one strong dispute and am only 5 videos in. I will ask for an unresolve only if I find a couple more though.

sold Ṁ0 of YES

I'm keeping this open until Sunday, I'll have to review a lot of videos to figure out the resolution to this 😓

As a heads-up:

  • Any debate happening today would still count

  • Destiny debated multiple people on December 5th, but because those conversations flowed into each other it will very, very likely just count as 1 debate.

  • In contrast, the three talks on November 12th will count as three debates because there were distinct cuts between them.

@Agh You created quite the task for yourself 😅

predicted YES

Has anybody done a rough count yet?