Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud". The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
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@nostream highly credible reporting such as The Information, OpenAI employees spamming potato emojis, etc
The goal isn't really necessarily for this to close but more to provide a market for people to bet on a leaked codename
The market also theoretically provides an incentive for insiders to leak proof that some model is spud
It will be released by January 2027
yes
It uses a novel architecture
Novel as in not just like 4o or distilled 4.5, yes. Novel as in some major architectural breakthrough no.
open source
no
GPT 6
Maybe but probably not
It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video
idc
It will have a METR 50% of 20+ hours
obviously