Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud". The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
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All of these resolve YES:
> It will be released by January 2027
> It will be released by May 2026
> It is GPT 5.5 (including any variations, as long as GPT 5.5 is in the name)
> It will be SOTA on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index
(AAII leaderboard; see Adonis's comment below on the Spud name confirmation.)
All of these resolve NO:
> It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video
> It is GPT 6
> It is an open source model
@MaxLennartson as discussed elsewhere, this will only resolve yes if there is convincing reporting to that effect.
Speculation from AI-focused blue checks does not count for much but I am open to arguments from stakeholders.
@AffineTyped @bens being convinced would probably count for a lot, but my plea would be to treat this market in the spirit of earlier comments, i.e. that this market only resolves one way or the other when it becomes clear that we are talking about Spud in particular and not just the coincidentally next released frontier model from OpenAI post the codename becoming public information
@AffineTyped Confirmed to be spud: https://youtu.be/YnoQ8RJbALw?t=45
@nostream highly credible reporting such as The Information, OpenAI employees spamming potato emojis, etc
The goal isn't really necessarily for this to close but more to provide a market for people to bet on a leaked codename
The market also theoretically provides an incentive for insiders to leak proof that some model is spud
It will be released by January 2027
yes
It uses a novel architecture
Novel as in not just like 4o or distilled 4.5, yes. Novel as in some major architectural breakthrough no.
open source
no
GPT 6
Maybe but probably not
It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video
idc
It will have a METR 50% of 20+ hours
obviously