Will there be a meaningful attempt on my life before 2024?
86
668
1.4K
resolved Jan 12
Resolved
NO

Any clear indication of attempt or intent counts, where I ascribe 80%+ chance to it being an actual attempt or intent.

Only attempts from today (8/8) to the end of this year, count; none before or after.

(E.g., if the FBI calls me one day and is like "We found a guy with detailed plans to murder you", I would consider this to count even if there was no actual attempt)

Kidnapping also counts.

I'm going to be making at least 1 publicly-announced appearance before the end of the year.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

It's a grim gamble, but those were some excellent odds. 👀

The very posting of this market increased the odds by a significant margin.

Risky that, someone might be tempted.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@JamesColiar this market would currently pay out $6.01 to a charity of their choice if someone bought it up to 100% and then did the crime.

I sincerely doubt that significantly influences Aella's risk profile.

@RobertCousineau Don't underestimate the value of internet points. People have done crazy shit in the past with just that as the reward.

One psycho is all it takes.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@JamesColiar That's for clout, not mana! I'm not saying it's impossible, but mana only count for anything among relatively sane people, so I'd be surprised if someone did something deeply antisocial just for the mana.

@Lorec Clout on Manifold is having a nice profit graph.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Only had 17 mana when the market jumped to 67% : 😭

bought Ṁ0 of NO

What a question. Does attempted suicide count?