Looks like @Aella published the writeup here:

https://open.substack.com/pub/aella/p/people-are-delusional-about-how-hot?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=ed20o

Expecting women to significantly overrate themselves and for men to be more accurate. Women tend to receive false feedback from men because men have very low standards.

@PHall Men are obviously not going to be accurate. Women think 80% of men are uglier than average and there's no way 80% of men will rate themselves uglier than average.

I think women are pretty aware of what men find attractive. And I think that most women will tend to rate their own attractiveness using a male gaze.

Men, on the other hand, often don't understand what women are judging by. Men will self-rate as though things like muscularity were a principle component.

Then you also need to factor in that there's a decent chunk of the male population who are wildly overconfident (thanks, testosterone), and will self rate based on that.

This is just a bit of first principles reasoning, though. It sounds right to me, but that's very much not the same thing as knowledge on the topic. Surely this isn't the first study...

@DanHomerick Yep. Women obviously receive more frequent feedback about how attractive others think they are. Men receive less and are routinely overconfident in domains involving skill/judgement eg judging driving ability, charisma, etc.

And yes, this has been directly studied:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/3033724

I suspect this market started mispriced because 1) men are overconfident about how overconfident they are 2) men think women overestimate their own attractiveness as a cope 3) Manifold is mostly men

@DanHomerick it's true that men have a tendency to think muscles are more important than they are. However, it's also true that women are constantly finding stuff wrong with themselves that no dude cares about.

@AlexanderTheGreater well by all means, bid up "men" again 🤣

@DanHomerick nah, I want more diversification. I'm also only at ~60-70% confidence on this. The discussion is very interesting though.

I accidentally set a big limit order for the wrong side.....

@Tumbles wanna trade more? 😄

@summer_of_bliss I'm out of mana!

Are the people you surveyed mostly straight, or is there any reason to believe they’re not mostly straight?

@DingoBingo they are mostly straight

How many people did you survey? What’s their age distribution?

@RaphaelBon 92 women and 143 or so men, I think avg age is late 20s early 30s but I can double-check

What's your methodology for comparing scores? I expect men will be consistently rated lower by women than they rate themselves, and that women's ratings of themselves will be more randomly uncorrelated from how men rate them

@mongo interesting, I expect women to rate themselves lower. They tend to notice so many things that no dude cares about.

Looking at Aella's past data it's also interesting that women seem to be all over the map when rating men. It almost seems like the average woman isn't good at rating a random dude either 😂