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Poll has closed, but market has not resolved?

@Aella you should close this before the poll, otherwise parimutuel shares of the answer will be bought up and the people who predicted the result beforehand won't get their fair share.

@BoltonBailey I don't fully understand how this works.

I wonder if a binary market would be better for predicting two-option polls, then

@Aella An explanation is here, under "Variable pay out". To give my own explanation, in the DPM system used by multiple-choice markets like this one, rather than buying a "YES" share that pays out 1M$ if the result is YES or one "NO" share that pays out 1M$ if the result is "NO", instead you buy a "Swear" or "Sing" share which entitles you to a fixed fraction of the total money pool if the market resolves to "Swear" or "Sing". This means people who go to the poll and see that "Swear" has won can buy "Swear" and dilute the value of the "Swear" shares previously bought by other people. For that reason, it's nice to close the market before information about how it will resolve is made public, so that everyone buying shares works off of the same information.

@BoltonBailey For example, yesterday when the probability of "Swear" was 41% I bought 7 Shares of "Swear" for 5M$, and at the time, the "payout if chosen" was around 10M$. Now that many people are buying "Swear", my payout if "Swear" is chosen is only 8M$.

@AndrewG The team on Discord has said that an update is in the works which will make the multiple-choice markets more like the YES/NO markets.

I was literally thinking, two days ago, that I would love to have the opportunity to predict the outcomes of twitter polls by either Spencer or you. Thanks!

Predict the Twitter poll is a fun format

Do you predict people on my twitter poll would rather lose the ability to sing or swear?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition