Do females who stick with relationships longer, tend to be more aroused by freeuse?
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resolved Sep 19
Resolved
NO

This is question 2/3, generated from this disagreement: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1691508461152956460


I am asking females "I usually don't leave relationships unless there's a very serious violation", with the answer options of "Strongly disagree" (-2) to "Strongly agree" (2).

Will the average scores between the groups of females who did and didn't check the "I'm aroused by freeuse" box differ by 0.5 or more, out of the the 5-point rating?

(e.g., if 'freeuse' females say 3.5, and non-freeuse females say 3.0 on average, this would resolve to 'yes')

I'm selecting 0.5 because it seems like enough of a rating difference that it correlate with trends meaningful enough to be noticeable in person.

After controlling for age and political leaning.

I'm going to roughly aim for around a n of around 400 cis females who mark yes to the 'freeuse' category before resolving this market.

Other market: https://manifold.markets/Aella/do-females-with-a-freeuse-kink-repo

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bought Ṁ20 of YES

Don't have a strong opinion, but at 25% I'm willing to take a bet, even if the mechanism is difefrent/it's just noise

I don't know about the question, but using "female" as a noun to describe human women rubs me the wrong way

predicted YES

@yep normally sure, but this is Aella, I have zero concerns about her intentions/thought process here

bought Ṁ400 of NO

@yep in fetish research, cis/trans ppl are very different in what they report being into. I'm specifically using 'female people' here, not 'women'

@Aella If you want that, shouldn't you say AFAB (or equivalent)? I'm pretty sure most trans women would say they're female (even when used as a noun), and most trans men would say they're not. Doing the distinction like this seems confusing at best

predicted YES

@Aella I second the notion this does not effectively convey the intended distinction

predicted NO

@yep i'm a bit looser with terms when talking about them, but in the survey the distinction was very clear, so no worries in getting the data itself mixed up

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I'm >99% confident Mason's claim is wrong, and is just 'I have this moral value and am rationalizing it's application in a new context' (note that this does not mean the moral value is wrong necessarily).

But I'm worried some other mechanism will cause the two to be correlated a little.

I'd think women who get into 'free use' are getting into it for kink-related reasons, as opposed to 'keep a man with me' reasons, and there are many related force/submission/noncon style kinks women are similarly into. It's both more parsimonious and directly fits the way they're describing it.

also in regards to the quoted tweet, id imagine a rape kink is more common than a free-use kink by self-identification anyway, so there's not really anything to explain

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack the mechanism you suggest is also what I expected from the title

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

I don't think the outcome of this is going to have anything to do with the disagreement that sparked this. People who are in relationships long enough for them to get boring are going to feel safe enough trying stuff like this with their partner, and more likely to enjoy it over the usual stuff.

predicted NO

One thing I sometimes wonder is if these sorts of disagreements are generated by a confusion of within-person vs between-person variation. That is, if you take a median woman and ask "what would be needed for her to engage with freeuse stuff", then Mason's model seems somewhat sensible. IMO the issue is that there is substantial variation between women, and so the women who get into this are not median women (though I imagine she could say that I'm making assumptions here, and that behavior can deviate a lot from traits).

bought Ṁ30 of NO

My expectation would be that freeuse kink is ~exclusively dependent on other variables through the unrestricted sociosexuality factor, so I'd expect both your questions to resolve in the way you propose and the opposite of what Mason proposes.