Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022
39%
chance
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump is allowed to reopen his Twitter account before midnight on the last day of 2022. This can either be his original account, or a new account but one that is clearly run by him and remains unbanned for at least 4 weeks.
Apr 25, 12:21pm: for this market to resolve to YES, Trump must *actually* make and use an account. An abstract claim by Twitter or their affiliates that Trump would be allowed back is not sufficient.
intellectronica bought M$50 of YESa month ago
The new owners of Twitter seem to believe in free speech even if it's annoying.
Conflux bought M$10 of YESa month ago
I've got some NO money on the other prediction market for this, which is not looking so great now.
Optimization Process bought M$10 of YESa month ago
(Arbitraging against https://manifold.markets/SG/will-trump-be-allowed-back-on-twitt )
Enopoletus Harding a month ago
Somebody make markets on the following three accounts (all vastly more important than Trump):
Milo
Ricky Vaughn
TEN_GOP
I've run out of money so far.
Austin bought M$10 of YESa month ago
This is one of the first things I expect Elon to do