Will I deadlift 425lbs x 4 in 2023?
21
144
αΉ€410
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

For the past few months I've been lifting, following this beginner program. I record all my workouts in this public spreadsheet.

I created a plot showing my lifts over time:

As well as a linear extrapolation of them:

Extrapolating linearly, which is optimistic, shows that I'll deadlift over 450lbs by the end of this year. Will I be able to deadlift over 425lbs x4 times?

I intend to keep on training 3x/week, and eating enough protein, though I'm vegan and don't control this on purpose much. I will update the public spreadsheet every time I train. I measure 198cm and weigh 103kg.

Self betting: I do not plan to bet on the market at this time. I may bet YES for motivation in the future, but will warn participants with a comment 3 days in advance.

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no updates to the sheet since June?

predicted YES

@shankypanky Yeah it’s been clear for a while that it would not happen. Sad but life got in the way, and it was very optimistic to begin with.

What is your current progress like?

I'm going to buy a bunch of YES at 19% in 3 days.

bought αΉ€10 of YES

I think it's quite unlikely, but possible if you are relatively talented/diligent at lifting

bought αΉ€30 of NO

425lb feels optimistic to me and if you get injured at all, seems hard to get back on track. I don't know much but I'd guess 360-400lbs

bought αΉ€20 of NO

I suspect you are probably largely observing previously acquired strength potential. I bet NO because i suspect you are a bit past the "intermediate" threshold in the linked article in terms of strength potential, but have 2-3 years of development before you hit the "advanced" threshold.

https://exrx.net/Testing/WeightLifting/DeadliftStandards