Context

Aligned is a new opinion-tracking platform designed to map disagreement, track how views evolve over time, and benchmark human values against AI models.

The app recently launched and is currently in the MVP phase. It features binary polling (Yes/No/Unsure), threaded discussions, and AI reasoning on every question.

Current Status: As of market creation, the app has 11 registered users (mostly friends & family). It was just announced publicly for the first time today via this Effective Altruism Forum post.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if thealignedapp.com has 100 or more registered user profiles in its database by January 31, 2026 (11:59 PM PT).

• Definition of "User": A user is defined as a unique registered account (via Google OAuth).

• Verification: I (the market creator) will post a screenshot of the Supabase user count or analytics dashboard to the market comments on Jan 31st to verify the result.

• Edge Cases:

  • Test accounts created by the developer do not count.

  • Obvious bot/spam accounts (if detectable) will be excluded from the count.

Why bet?

• The Gap: We are starting from 11 users, meaning we need 89 new signups to resolve YES.

• The Catalyst: The primary source of traffic right now is the EA Forum announcement post (although it was just posted, and it hasn't generated any traction thus far). Traders can gauge the reception of that post to estimate signup velocity.

• Verify yourself: You can check the current activity levels yourself at thealignedapp.com.