This question gauges whether the most exceptional human juniors in the coming decades will significantly surpass the best modern-day humans in world-class academic breadth.

Resolves YES if, before 2045, a well-profiled biological human individual under the age of 18 appears to be capable of the following academic feats, each within at most one-month of challenge-specific preparation.

• 100+ on the Putnam

• Gold medals in the

  • IMO

  • IOI

  • IPhO

  • At least one of the IChO or IBO

• 2500 Chess FIDE rating

• Simultaneously highly fluent in at least 5 languages, scoring a Superior or better in the Speaking, Writing, Listening, and Reading categories of the ACTFL Proficiency Guidelines for each language in turn

• Quarters or better in Lincoln-Douglas at the TOC

• Acceptance to the Julliard School's Music Division (any major), on the strength of their musical abilities

For all feats, assume a representative evaluation following the same scope and rough difficulty as their late-2010s equivalents, in a testing environment without digital assistance or cognitive augmentation, and as close as possible to late-2010s test/performance conditions. The one-month pre-test preparation cannot use curricular tools, materials, or cognitive aids which could not have been plausibly available to competitors before 2020.

To further clarify what it means for someone to be simultaneously capable of all of the listed academic feats with one month of preparation: a qualifying individual does not need to perform every feat within the same one-month period. Instead, any single feat could be chosen for evaluation, and regardless of which feat is chosen, highly liquid prediction markets (or equivalently epistemically reliable systems) place a >90% chance that the individual could achieve it within a month as specified.