Resolves using the same criteria as @/JohnDavidPressman/will-a-frontier-model-be-found-to-h but with a shifted close date. I'll additionally specify that qualifying details of such an incident need to be public by EOY for a YES resolution.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 57% chance (2 traders, as of Nov 7, 2026).

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before 2028?

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028?

35% chance

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

8% chance

What year will a major US AI company have its frontier model weights leaked and or stolen?

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

63% chance

Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]

7% chance

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

5% chance

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

17% chance

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

7% chance

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

20% chance

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

71% chance