MANIFOLD
Will Dan Ariely be employed as a tenured professor at Duke University at the end of 2026?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ139
2027
80%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of 11:59pm EST on Dec 31, 2026, Ariely is still listed by Duke University as a tenured professor (or equivalent continuing faculty position).

Resolves NO if, before that date:

  • Duke announces termination,

  • Ariely resigns,

  • Ariely retires,

  • His tenure is revoked,

  • Or he is no longer employed in any faculty capacity at Duke.

If he transitions to an emeritus or adjunct role before that date, resolves NO

Will resolve using Duke University official announcements and faculty directory.

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