Will at least 9 of the 10 largest global companies by market cap on January 13 will be in the top 10 on March 31?
Will at least 9 of the 10 largest global companies by market cap on January 13 will be in the top 10 on March 31?
3
100Ṁ145resolved Mar 31
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YES1D
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ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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