Israel has been telling us for weeks that Hamas has command and control centers beneath hospitals in Gaza with tunnels from the hospitals connecting them. They released a CGI demonstration of this below Shifa hospital. Now that Israel is emptying hospitals they will inspect and present the evidence. This will resolve to yes if Israel presents indisputable evidence of Hamas offices, command centers, control centers and tunnels beneath the hospitals as they have claimed.
"Incontrovertible" will be evidence that leads reputable media sources to concede that a large and important Hamas command center, or HQ, or control center was indeed located below a Gazan hospital and this is not disputed by other reputable Western media sources.
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If the evidence adduced thus far hasn’t been sufficient to trigger a YES resolution and IDF has since destroyed the tunnel, NO should be free money. @Accuracy I hope you would let us know if any of the evidence was incontrovertible in your view.
@NicoDelon Not that I seriously suggest the IDF spokesperson is playing such games, but it could be they have recorded evidence they are waiting to release at a better moment, PR-wise. So not exactly free money.
@YotamFederman I guess maybe though it's hard to square with the rest of their behavior around this.
@NicoDelon The tunnel does not meet the standard for a “large and important command center” for purposes of this market. Israel says there are tunnels all over Gaza. It would be inaccurate to say that all of Gaza has command centers beneath it even if there are sprawling tunnels beneath it. Furthermore, the Washington Post reported that the tunnels led away from the hospital not towards it. Please tell me if I’m missing something.
Also there are many more hospitals that could have command centers beneath them.
@Accuracy If Israel built the HQ 40 years ago. Pretty sure they’re going to find a HQ.
Is the huge difference between this market and Hanania’s one https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/hamas-command-center-under-alshifa?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw due only to the difference in bias of the creators (plus maybe the word “incontrovertible”)?
@mariopasquato If you look at their definition of a command center…
“As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations.”
It means if a single guy made a single plan anywhere in the tunnels it’s a command center. In my mind such a loose definition would make the entire Gaza Strip a military target due to the massive tunnel network.
@mariopasquato The burden of proof is way higher in this market, which points to the bias of both creators a little bit, but at least this bias is observable from the get go. In this market, all major media outlets have to agree in unison that there were control centers, command centers, and offices. By now I don’t think there’s any news org that seriously argues there’s no evidence that hamas was using the areas under the hospital. It’s just the extent that they were being used that’s up for debate. This debate will probably never be sorted out by every news org. So it’s unlikely this will be resolved yes. In the other market there just has to be a preponderance of evidence that Hamas was using the area under the hospital for planning. And by now, it’s pretty clear that they were. So both are probably being priced fairly according to how the rules were written. And the creators are probably judging according to their rules pretty accurately. If there’s bias, it’s that you can prolly guess what both creators wanted to be true from the way they wrote the rules
@TonyBaloney Agree mostly. That said, this market is worded closer to what would justify the cutting off of power and writing the hospital leading to the loss of innocent life. Israel’s defense of those actions was not that “Hamas once used this area for planning” but instead that it was an active and important command center that must be taken EVEN IF premature babies must die as a result.
@Accuracy Yeah. Didn’t mean that as a criticism of either market.
One aside is that it sure seems that Israel is in control of northern Gaza now that they’ve taken the hospital. It’s odd that there was was such intense fighting around the hospital, and once Israel captured it, Hamas seemed to retreat. It’s probably a coincidence though.
@TonyBaloney This market https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as is probably as "neutral" as you can get, and it's about 70%.
New detailed videos of the tunnels:
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1727476410803953868?t=Fwtpq9UYfXVH6QZG4SFLGg&s=19
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1727409278636478519?t=vqi5VvL_BgvFk8X2kXOnng&s=19
I think the videos are pretty incontroversial evidence of... whatever it is we see there. I don't know what these tunnels were used for, and there's no evidence on that. Also they seem a bit underwhelming for a command center.
Video of a tunnel system underneath the Al-Shifa complex.
https://x.com/eylonalevy/status/1726291285030707225?s=46&t=WKRyFNaUStQaXCTlWvKsEA
@AviSchwartz Something very strange happens at 3:03. They are lowering this camera down this shaft. Stairs appear, then things jump around and the stairs are gone and the camera is now in some hallway and is somehow able to start running down the hall? Can someone else explain what is going on here?
@Accuracy It's a military dog that was lowered by rope. (you can see its muzzle taken off around 1:30)
https://twitter.com/Israel/status/1726292123849293926
Israel has posted it's evidence of a Hamas tunnel in the Shifa complex. This is painfully bad.
They begin by showing a video of a well in the Shifa grounds, then cut at 1:22 to a real tunnel. There is NO need for this video cut if this was actually real evidence.
Here's the breakdown debunking the original tunnel entrance as a well:
@Accuracy Twitter is cancerous, but indeed there is a cut at 1.22-1.23 in the second video
@Accuracy Also before the cut there is blurred out writing framing the video, afterwards it disappears. The tweet claims the video to be “one shot”. It’s not. Would they lie so obviously? Or are there technical reasons/explanations for the cut?
@Accuracy debunking how? You can't move in "water reservoir" like this? Looks very walkable to me.
@ICRainbow Yeah, it's a real mystery why a water tank would be empty when running water in Gaza had been cut off for weeks
@Creagle have you seen the videos? Are there pumps, stains or at least something to support the "water tank" explanation?
What was there is a blast door with a bunch of livable rooms. Do people live in water wells now or what?
@ICRainbow the IDF has claimed that was there, they didn't let any independent media anywhere near the "tunnel" and the videos released have mysterious cuts in them which means they're most likely splicing together footage to manufacture evidence
@ICRainbow The question is "no" as it stands because resolution means they actually show the evidence and it's properly verified by independent actors, not just an IDF video and "trust me bro"