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It appears that not only were there not babies beheaded at Kfar Azza, there is only one baby confirmed for ALL deaths on October 7, and zero confirmed beheadings. The list still has the youngest confirmed death in Kfar Azzza as a 14 year old. It’s safe to say that although many media sources picked this up including the President of the United States himself, the Kfar Azza account of 40 decapitated babies was a lie.

@Accuracy

Although I agree with the resolve - since it had a time limit

Just because information has not been made public in no way means it was a lie. Especially if identification & sensitivity of the topic might have delayed it.

@KarlisZauers If babies were killed at Kfar Azza you don’t think we would know by now?

@Accuracy Israeli gov has been hesitant in showing dead victims in general - just look at the limited screenings of Hamas & IDF first responders bodycam footage

Hence we cannot make definitive statements

Then again I do agree with the resolve since it fits the constraints

@KarlisZauers I think the lack of very young people among the confirmed deaths is a signal the Israelis would rather not talk about it, not a signal that they didn't die. I don't think there is any evidence that Hamas spares babies while indiscriminately killing older civilians.

@nathanwei What do you mean? Israel has published all the other young deaths here:

https://www.ynetnews.com/magazine/article/by65800qmt

Why would they be fine publishing these but not any from Kfar Azza?

@nathanwei read a quite comprehensive Snopes report on this. (https://www.snopes.com/news/2023/10/12/40-israeli-babies-beheaded-by-hamas/) At least multiple babies were killed, but there are no firsthand reports from journalists specifying baby beheadings

@Accuracy Who knows. But no one under 4 has been confirmed to have died. Even though we have images of babies burned to death. So I don't think it's all the deaths. Not sure exactly what is going on.

@Accuracy it's a lot harder to identify children so it might take a while

Also "The bodies of 1,194 individuals have been identified thus far" implies that they're not done

@KarlisZauers Right, my guess would just be that not everyone dead in Kfar Aza has been identified, it takes some care to identify very young casualties and they are cautious, I expect that these 35 are unfortunately not the last.

@nathanwei Ok in that case you may want to look at this:

https://manifold.markets/Accuracy/will-israel-confirm-before-the-end?r=QWNjdXJhY3k

@nathanwei Where have you seen images of babies burned to death? Please provide source.

@Accuracy PM office tweeted it, screenshot of tweet is in https://www.livemint.com/news/world/babies-murdered-burned-by-hamas-monsters-israel-shares-photos-amid-war-11697128208963.html

@nathanwei This isn’t true they have confirmed a 10 month old was killed in Beeri.

@Accuracy I see. I suspect we will learn about very young people killed in Kfar Aza, but it will take time. I would recommend keeping the market open for some time. I guess you can always re-resolve it later if we get evidence of decapitated babies.

It's also worth noting that Israel also might be waiting for the right moment to release some of this imagery, maybe after the war or after taking North Gaza but before taking South Gaza or something like that. Right now it would not be the right time to release it I think, from a strategic/propaganda perspective.

@nathanwei Yes I saw that. It confirms a single baby which I assume is the one included on the list already. You said babies plural so I thought you had something else.

@Accuracy That's 3 distinct babies. And that's a lower bound.

There have been reliable reports of more babies:

https://themedialine.org/top-stories/evidence-on-display-at-israels-forensic-pathology-center-confirms-hamas-atrocities/ 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-769339 

https://archive.ph/dhJhL

See also this tweet: https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1716167188468355338

@Accuracy Also https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1723779675628134756 this happened. Probably the fetus doesn't count as a person. But given that this happened, I would be very surprised if there were not a lot of dead babies. Again, the articles:

https://themedialine.org/top-stories/evidence-on-display-at-israels-forensic-pathology-center-confirms-hamas-atrocities/ 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-769339 

https://archive.ph/dhJhL

@nathanwei The pregnant belly thing was completely debunked. It was a video from South America.

@Accuracy Was it debunked? Was anyone actually shown video evidence of it?

I've done another check based on the Ha'aretz list of dead and the youngest person on the list from Kfar Azza is 14.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-19/ty-article-magazine/israels-dead-the-names-of-those-killed-in-hamas-massacres-and-the-israel-hamas-war/0000018b-325c-d450-a3af-7b5cf0210000

Please let me know if I've missed anything.

@Accuracy I don't bet because I don't like to make a profit from such a story, but to resolve with Yes you ask that there be at least one decapitated infant?

@Accuracy I think that there will definitely be a report of someone under 10 being killed in Kfar Aza by the end of 2024, 90+%. Perhaps I should make a market on it. I think that the lack of reports of anyone under 14 mostly just means that it's not being released for whatever reason. It might also be harder to identify dead babies than to identify dead adults.

@nathanwei I think it's not so unlikely that Israel is saving some of the worst crimes for after the war, for some kind of Eichmann trial style spectacle. That's what I would do if I were them.

@nathanwei They don’t “use them up” if they mention them now.

@Accuracy Not obvious to me (and I don't see why it's obvious to them, which is really the relevant thing). There is definitely propaganda value in dropping a bunch of never-before-seen bombshells at Sinwar's Eichmann-style trial.