Predictions will be locked in starting at 7:59 pm on September 10.
Difference between Electoral College Totals Forecast and Overall Candidate Odds:
Some forecasts/markets measure the likelihood a candidate will win independently of their forecast for Electoral College Totals. Accordingly, those forecasts/markets with that ability have been split into two separate questions. For an Electoral College Total forecast to be correct it does not need to show the correct number of electoral votes, it simply must show the winner of the election getting a majority of the Electoral College votes.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.
1,000
3.00@Riley12 yes, but this market is based on the state of the forecast before the Trump-Harris presidential debate
@traders PLEASE TAKE NOTICE:
At Noon EDT tomorrow the market currently labeled "Manifold Overall Candidate Odds" will be renamed "Manifold Overall Party Odds" as the party odds are Manifold's flagship odds forecast not candidate odds
Election Betting Odds will be added at noon EDT tomorrow
Should Kalshi launch a market forecasting the winner of the presidency that will be added after I give 12 hours' notice
As is my practice in my markets, 12 hours notice will be given to allow traders to prepare before any major changes are made unless there is a manifest necessity to make them sooner