Which of the following forecasts will correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election on the day before?
27
1.9kṀ1473
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES
Polymarket Overall Candidate Odds
Resolved
YES
Polymarket Electoral College Totals Forecast
Resolved
YES
Manifold Flagship Election Odds (Mana)
Resolved
YES
Manifold Electoral College Totals Forecast
Resolved
NO
Metaculus Overall Candidate Odds
Resolved
NO
Metaculus Electoral College Totals Forecast
Resolved
NO
PredictIt Overall Candidate Odds
Resolved
NO
PredictIt Electoral College Margin Forecast
Resolved
YES
538 Forecast
Resolved
YES
Nate Silver Forecast
Resolved
YES
JHK Overall Candidate Odds
Resolved
NO
JHK Electoral College Totals Forecast
Resolved
NO
Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House"
Resolved
NO
None of these/Disrupted election
Resolved
YES
Election Betting Odds
Resolved
YES
Manifold Flagship Election Odds (sweepcash)
Resolved
YES
Kalshi Forcast
Resolved
YES
Kalshi Electoral College
Resolved
N/A
DISQUALIFIED (Will resolve N/A)

Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 pm on November 4th.

If a source gives an equal probability of two candidates winning, that market will resolve to 50% as long as one of the two candidates predicted wins.

Difference between Electoral College Totals Forecast and Overall Candidate Odds:

Some forecasts/markets measure the likelihood a candidate will win independently of their forecast for Electoral College Totals. Accordingly, those forecasts/markets with that ability have been split into two separate questions. For an Electoral College Total forecast to be correct it does not need to show the correct number of electoral votes, it simply must show the winner of the election getting a majority of the Electoral College votes.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.

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