Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 pm on November 4th.
If a source gives an equal probability of two candidates winning, that market will resolve to 50% as long as one of the two candidates predicted wins.
Difference between Electoral College Totals Forecast and Overall Candidate Odds:
Some forecasts/markets measure the likelihood a candidate will win independently of their forecast for Electoral College Totals. Accordingly, those forecasts/markets with that ability have been split into two separate questions. For an Electoral College Total forecast to be correct it does not need to show the correct number of electoral votes, it simply must show the winner of the election getting a majority of the Electoral College votes.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.
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3.00@traders Please note the addition of the following rule:
If a source gives an equal probability of two candidates winning, that market will resolve to 50% as long as one of the two candidates predicted wins.
@traders Please take notice: Tomorrow at 8:00 am EDT I will add Kalshi Electoral College forecast as an option. That forecast can be found at this link https://kalshi.com/elections-dash
@traders Please take note: At 7:30 pm EDT today a new answer option will open entitled "Kalshi Forcast". This will be the forecast found at this link. Due to the continuing legal battles regarding whether Kalshi is allowed to operate an exchange based on elections, there is a possibility that the linked market will be shut down before Election Day. Should that happen, the last forecast before the market was shut down will be used.
@traders As Manifold has again changed their flagship forecast for the election to the candidate-based forecast, at 9:00 am EDT tomorrow the forecasts titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)" and "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" will be changed to be titled "Manifold Flagship Election Odds (sweepcash)" and "Manifold Flagship Election Odds (Mana)". These forecasts will be the ones that are highlighted at the top of the page at https://manifold.markets/election.
@traders For your information, tomorrow at 9:30 am EDT the answer currently labeled "Manifold Overall Party Odds" will be renamed to "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" and an additional answer will be added titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)". The market named "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" will be the one that uses mana for trades and the one titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)" will be the one that uses sweepcash for trades. As there have yet to be markets for individual state electoral college votes using sweepcash, I will not be adding a sweepcash version of the "Manifold Electoral College Totals Forecast". If that changes you will receive 12-hours notice.
@traders I just wanted to note two things
First, Kalshi has officially opened some of its election markets. While its current markets are limited to House and Senate predictions, it seems poised to launch a new market for the presidency. As I said before that will be added to this market after I give 12 hours notice.
Second, given that making predictions about events gets easier as the events get closer I wanted to note that I have 2 other markets open for betting on prediction forecasts. This one is based on the predictions from October 18th and has x1.5 the liquidity of this market and this one is based on predictions issued on October 1st and has x2 the liquidity of this market.
@traders PLEASE TAKE NOTICE:
At Noon EDT tomorrow the market currently labeled "Manifold Overall Candidate Odds" will be renamed "Manifold Overall Party Odds" as the party odds are Manifold's flagship odds forecast not candidate odds
Election Betting Odds will be added at noon EDT tomorrow
Should Kalshi launch a market forecasting the winner of the presidency that will be added after I give 12 hours' notice
As is my practice in my markets, 12 hours notice will be given to allow traders to prepare before any major changes are made unless there is a manifest necessity to make them sooner