If the government is shut down at any 10:00 AM ET by 2024, then the market resolves to YES.

The current status of government opening is available here.

The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down between market creation and December 31st, 2024 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations will lead to a resolution of YES. Notices of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not lead to a resolution of YES.

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Note: I will not bet on this market.