Will turnout increase in the second round of the Turkey 2023 presidential election?
22
690Ṁ10k
resolved May 29
Resolved
NO

Will turnout increase in the second round, when compared to the first round?
According to wikipedia the first round turnout (including blank votes) was: 55,833,153. A tie will resolve as no.

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2y

@AaronKreider this should resolve NO, because the turnout in the first round was 88.84% (53993714 votes cast), and the turnout in the second round is 85.65% (52050216 votes cast)

2y

Turkish election fever cools down ahead of decisive run-off
Voters find it hard to resurrect enthusiasm of first round ahead of presidential run-off between Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu.
predictedYES 2y

@DanMan314 Yeah but international turnout is up.

predictedYES 2y

@AaronKreider Seems anecdotal. I think there is a decent chance turnout increases. That said, I expect it to be very close to the last round (plus or minus 3%). Unfortunately Turkey doesn't have a record of runoffs, so we're mostly guessing.

predictedNO 2y

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/26/turkey-election-fever-cools-down-ahead-of-decisive-run-off

predictedYES 2y

I could see the closeness of the race increasing turnout. Or the fact that there are two fewer candidates could lower turnout. I'm undecided.

2y

One possible precedent
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2019_Istanbul_mayoral_election

Does Turkey have runoffs in any other elections (municipal, state)?

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