Background

Chocolate is made from cocoa beans, which are the seeds of the cocoa tree. The process involves fermenting, drying, roasting, and grinding the beans into cocoa mass, which is then mixed with other ingredients like cocoa butter, sugar, or milk.

Dark chocolate (70%+ cacao) is rich in minerals like zinc, magnesium, and iron, and contains powerful antioxidants called flavonoids. These compounds help lower blood pressure, reduce inflammation, and improve insulin sensitivity. The fats in chocolate, particularly stearic acid, are converted to heart-healthy oleic acid in the liver.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the price of Cocoa is greater in the end of 2025 than in the begging

Considerations

• Combining dairy milk with dark chocolate reduces the absorption of beneficial flavonoids

• Chocolate contains caffeine and theobromine, with levels increasing as chocolate gets darker

• "Bloom," a white layer that can form on chocolate, is caused by temperature fluctuations but doesn't affect taste

• While sugar in chocolate can harm teeth, pure cacao contains anti-bacterial enzymes that may help prevent plaque

  Background

  Cocoa prices have reached historic highs in 2024, driven by global supply shortages, disease pressures affecting crops, climate change impacts, and chronic underinvestment in cocoa farms. The current price is approximately $11,868 USD per metric ton.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market will resolve YES if the price of cocoa (measured in USD per metric ton) is higher on December 31, 2025, compared to January 1, 2025. The market will use the ICE Futures U.S. cocoa contract price as the reference.

  Considerations

  • Supply-side constraints are expected to continue affecting prices through 2025

  • Current forecasts predict a steady increase throughout 2025, from approximately $11,706 in January to $13,325 by December

  • Weather patterns and climate conditions in major cocoa-producing regions (particularly West Africa) could significantly impact prices

  • Global demand fluctuations, particularly from major chocolate manufacturers, may affect pricing

  • Currency exchange rates between USD and the currencies of major cocoa-producing countries could influence prices