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MANIFOLD
Will the Russian army reach Vuhledar by Oct 15th?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ910
resolved Sep 26
Resolved
YES

Will resolve based on the institute for the study of war maps (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates). Resolves YES immediately if any part of Vuhledar city is marked as "Assesed Russian advances" or "Assesed Russian control" on any of the ISW maps assessing the situation up to Oct 15th. Otherwise resolves NO.

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Ukraine-Russia war
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Very related:
https://manifold.markets/AlexandreK/will-russian-forces-take-vuhledar-i

Update: since the ISW's current map of Vuhledar and its surroundings lacks detail, I may need to defer to ISW's report text - if they explicitly say that Russian army is operating withing Vuhledar, this will resolve YES, even if the map is ambiguous...

bought Ṁ580 YES

@AIBear They have an interactive map https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 and this market should resolve YES.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.

@AIBear

@nikstar Thanks, I agree.