I'm the defending champion at the National Scrabble Championships in German-language Scrabble (it's called National Championships, but people from other countries, such as Austria, can also participate) that will take place from May 9th to May 12th.

Will I successfully defend my title? I will not bet on this market and I obviously have a pretty good idea of what my chances are. So I'm not quite sure why I'm putting up this market, but I think it's just to serve Manifold's love of quirky personal markets. :-)

Background info:

Here's the current list of top seeds (there might still be last-minute registrations, but most top players have either registered or will not attend). These ratings will not change any more because no other tournaments happen before the Nationals.

Boerner, Timon 1773

Dings, Alexander (me) 1640

Nguyen, Khan 1590

Grebert, Jakob 1548

Berger, Ben 1526

Wedel, Martina 1439

Kneist, Ute 1433

Mang, Patricia 1428

Müller, Uschi 1410

Naumann, Johannes 1410

In total, there are currently 69 registered players (a nice number for our niche game): https://scrabble-info.de/turniere-info/dm-info/ Most of the players beyond the ten above are ranked somewhere between 1000-1300.

These ratings are a variant of Elo ratings: they follow a linear scale where each 12 points of rating difference represent 1% of winning chances, so for example a rating difference of 360 points between two players mean that the favourite is expected to win 80% of the time (50 + 12 x 360 x 0.01).

You can explore head-to-head records between players here: https://scrabble-info.de/turniere-info/spielerhistorie/

The ratings are mostly fairly accurate, although Timon and I agree that I the rating gap between us likely shouldn't be quite this large.

The tournament will consist of 20 rounds of Swiss System pairings with no repeats, followed by a best-of-3 final.

If you speak German, take a look at my YouTube channel for more info. https://www.youtube.com/alexdings