Will German trains be on time again by 2030?
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ1815
2031
40%
chance

The German railroad system (Deutsche Bahn) isn't what it used to be. Currently less than 70% of long-distance trains arrive on time. This is generally attributed at least in part to years of neglicence in modernizing and maintaining the infrastructure.

The company has stated that they want to get to a punctuality level of 80% again by 2030 (https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/unternehmen/bahn-lutz-puenktlichkeit-100.html) and has started efforts to get along with the long overdue infrastructure overhaul.

Resolves YES if 80% punctuality or more is reported for 2030 either by the company itself or by reputable media such as Tagesschau. If the sources differ (unlikely), I'll use my best judgment which source to trust. The stat refers to long-distance trains (Fernverkehr) and to "betriebliche Pünktlichkeit" (does each individual train arrive on time), not to "Reisendenpünktlichkeit" (whether the passenger reaches the final destination of their entire journey on time).

Currently punctuality is defined as arriving less than 6 minutes late. If the punctuality statistic is defined a different way in 2030, I'll probably resolve N/A.

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 40% order

Lol, wondering why people are so pessimistic about this. It’s 6 years and going from 70% to 80%, not 99%. Weren’t they way above 80% before the overhaul started?

@Gideon37 okay, checked, it, they only were above 80 once in the past 10 years (2020, which was ofc not a normal year). Still sticking to 40%.

https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/921374/umfrage/puenktlichkeit-der-fernverkehrszuege-der-deutschen-bahn/

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