28. Will some new COVID variant not currently known be greater than 25% of cases in 2022?
22
202Ṁ2254
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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Either BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 (Omicron subvariants) count as new variants and this already should resolve as YES, or they don’t count (and there almost certainly won’t be a new variant that arises in the next 15 days). I would guess the latter, but it’s unfortunate that we don’t have someone to tell us which right now.

Everything has played out exactly as I was betting on (a new variant every six months, like clockwork) ...except that now they're apparently calling them "subvariants."
predictedYES
Still betting it back up to 50%, since I see several possible outs: a) maybe the Christmas variant shows up early b) maybe Scott is just as oblivious to this alleged variant/subvariant distinction as I was twenty minutes ago. c) maybe WHO decides there's no point in having a Greek letter thing if due to a technicality they don't bother using it in its exact intended use case, and they give BA.5 a proper variant name.
predictedNO
Yeah, maybe Scott would count BA.5 as a bona fide variant

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