28. Will some new COVID variant not currently known be greater than 25% of cases in 2022?
22
202Ṁ2254resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ207 | |
| 2 | Ṁ59 | |
| 3 | Ṁ58 | |
| 4 | Ṁ51 | |
| 5 | Ṁ47 |
Sort by:
Either BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 (Omicron subvariants) count as new variants and this already should resolve as YES, or they don’t count (and there almost certainly won’t be a new variant that arises in the next 15 days). I would guess the latter, but it’s unfortunate that we don’t have someone to tell us which right now.
Still betting it back up to 50%, since I see several possible outs:
a) maybe the Christmas variant shows up early
b) maybe Scott is just as oblivious to this alleged variant/subvariant distinction as I was twenty minutes ago.
c) maybe WHO decides there's no point in having a Greek letter thing if due to a technicality they don't bother using it in its exact intended use case, and they give BA.5 a proper variant name.