28. Will some new COVID variant not currently known be greater than 25% of cases in 2022?
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Ṁ2254resolved Feb 1
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From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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Either BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 (Omicron subvariants) count as new variants and this already should resolve as YES, or they don’t count (and there almost certainly won’t be a new variant that arises in the next 15 days). I would guess the latter, but it’s unfortunate that we don’t have someone to tell us which right now.
Still betting it back up to 50%, since I see several possible outs:
a) maybe the Christmas variant shows up early
b) maybe Scott is just as oblivious to this alleged variant/subvariant distinction as I was twenty minutes ago.
c) maybe WHO decides there's no point in having a Greek letter thing if due to a technicality they don't bother using it in its exact intended use case, and they give BA.5 a proper variant name.
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