4. Will PredictIt think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022?
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resolved Feb 1
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NO
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Republican Party
#ACX 2022 Predictions
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DeSantis has been in the lead since August, not sure why I should think the probability of Trump regaining the lead by late December is more than 50%

predicted NO
Another example of how easy it is to find ambiguity in the wording of questions in Markets… I interpreted the question as “ Will PredictIt *STILL* think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022?”, since he was already the highest valued bet on the PredictIt market. Also there’s another way to read the current market values as “Trump=45cents” vs “Anyone Other than Trump=55cents”, so Other is valued as more likely. (That’s NOT the way I’m reading the question, but I do see the ambiguity.)
He’s the favorite already.
Relevant PredictIt market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

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