4. Will PredictIt think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022?
Basic
62
Ṁ5341resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
Another example of how easy it is to find ambiguity in the wording of questions in Markets…
I interpreted the question as “ Will PredictIt *STILL* think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022?”, since he was already the highest valued bet on the PredictIt market.
Also there’s another way to read the current market values as “Trump=45cents” vs “Anyone Other than Trump=55cents”, so Other is valued as more likely. (That’s NOT the way I’m reading the question, but I do see the ambiguity.)
Relevant PredictIt market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump win the 2024 Election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
45% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
45% chance
Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win the Presidential Election of the United States of America in 2024?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
46% chance
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win 2024 presidential election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
47% chance