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There's quite a lot of "resolution risk" here. My estimate is that there was around 10% inflation in 2021, though the official metrics will report some of that inflation as happening in 2022. As a result, I expect the official metrics to show 7-8% inflation in 2022.

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Will US inflation be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years (2024-2028)?

89% chance

Will US inflation be over 4% for the next 5 years?

1% chance

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