13. Will Ethereum be above $5k at the end of 2022?
Crypto Prices•ACX 2022 Predictions
142
274
Ṁ680
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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predicted NO

resolves no

bought Ṁ234 of NO

free

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Doing a rough model of the volatility over the past year, seems like this is a 2 sigma event.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

🤔

bought Ṁ13 of NO
Only 5x gain needed
predicted NO
Only 4x gain needed
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Only 3x gain needed. Aka no.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Based on this (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/), ETH has hit an all time high 2/5 years of its existence so Laplace's Rule of Succession gives me a naive 43% probability.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
There should not be a 50% chance of Ethereum hitting a new ATH this year.
bought Ṁ30 of YES
According to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum, Ethereum's all-time high in Oct was close to (but not quite) $5k

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