13. Will Ethereum be above $5k at the end of 2022?
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680Ṁ33k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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predictedNO

resolves no

free

Doing a rough model of the volatility over the past year, seems like this is a 2 sigma event.

🤔

Only 5x gain needed
predictedNO
Only 4x gain needed
Only 3x gain needed. Aka no.
Based on this (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/), ETH has hit an all time high 2/5 years of its existence so Laplace's Rule of Succession gives me a naive 43% probability.
There should not be a 50% chance of Ethereum hitting a new ATH this year.
According to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum, Ethereum's all-time high in Oct was close to (but not quite) $5k

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