31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?
76%
chance

IE will it end the year higher than it began?

This is question #31 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileyis predicting YES at 79%

See sheet 2 of this spreadsheet for Black-Scholes analysis.

Preen avatar
Preenbought Ṁ100 of YES

The s&p500 has gone up in 70% of the last 80 years, and this year interest rates are high so it seems like a reasonable baseline to expect it to be above 70%. (and it's already up a few percent which is already >0.1 annual stds which is non-trivial, probably worth an extra percent or two)

Preen avatar
Preenis predicting YES at 66%

@Preen I guess interest rates aren't actually that high by historical standards so maybe 70% is reasonable (though it is also up already a bit)

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrák

Should mimic

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting YES at 71%

@MartinModrak what's with the blank comments?

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting YES at 71%

@jonsimon oh wow now I see it. Weird bug

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrák

@jonsimon Sorry for the noise, I tried to link to a different market, but it for some reasons doesn't show and I couldn't find a way to delete the comments. I also cannot report them...

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting YES at 69%

@MartinModrak yeah, comments editing and deletion is really annoying, I have ongoing markets about when the devs will fix both of those

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrák

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrák

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileyis predicting YES at 64%

S&P at about $3820 now, so this is what it will have to beat.

StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting YES at 65%

@BoltonBailey Open today was 3,853.29. I think it's more likely that's what he meant.