@traders RESOLVES YES

Closed at 4,769.83 on the last trading day, resolves YES

The S&P 500's rise is a sight to behold,
But predicting the future is a story untold.
We can only hope that the bulls will hold sway,
And the bears will have to wait for another day.

We have about a 7% lead and in general stocks go up. This seems like a pure math question more than anything, and I’ll be slightly more bullish than whatever the raw numbers predict. AI impact isn’t directionally obvious for established firms. I don’t want to get updates on this so I’m sitting it out, put me down for basic math plus 1%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

See sheet 2 of this spreadsheet for Black-Scholes analysis.

The s&p500 has gone up in 70% of the last 80 years, and this year interest rates are high so it seems like a reasonable baseline to expect it to be above 70%. (and it's already up a few percent which is already >0.1 annual stds which is non-trivial, probably worth an extra percent or two)

@Preen I guess interest rates aren't actually that high by historical standards so maybe 70% is reasonable (though it is also up already a bit)

Should mimic

@MartinModrak what's with the blank comments?

@jonsimon oh wow now I see it. Weird bug

@jonsimon Sorry for the noise, I tried to link to a different market, but it for some reasons doesn't show and I couldn't find a way to delete the comments. I also cannot report them...

@MartinModrak yeah, comments editing and deletion is really annoying, I have ongoing markets about when the devs will fix both of those

S&P at about $3820 now, so this is what it will have to beat.

@BoltonBailey Open today was 3,853.29. I think it's more likely that's what he meant.