31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?
resolved Dec 29

IE will it end the year higher than it began?

This is question #31 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

Closed at 4,769.83 on the last trading day, resolves YES

The S&P 500's rise is a sight to behold,
But predicting the future is a story untold.
We can only hope that the bulls will hold sway,
And the bears will have to wait for another day.

We have about a 7% lead and in general stocks go up. This seems like a pure math question more than anything, and I’ll be slightly more bullish than whatever the raw numbers predict. AI impact isn’t directionally obvious for established firms. I don’t want to get updates on this so I’m sitting it out, put me down for basic math plus 1%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

predicted YES

See sheet 2 of this spreadsheet for Black-Scholes analysis.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

The s&p500 has gone up in 70% of the last 80 years, and this year interest rates are high so it seems like a reasonable baseline to expect it to be above 70%. (and it's already up a few percent which is already >0.1 annual stds which is non-trivial, probably worth an extra percent or two)

predicted YES

@Preen I guess interest rates aren't actually that high by historical standards so maybe 70% is reasonable (though it is also up already a bit)

Should mimic

predicted YES

@MartinModrak what's with the blank comments?

predicted YES

@jonsimon oh wow now I see it. Weird bug

@jonsimon Sorry for the noise, I tried to link to a different market, but it for some reasons doesn't show and I couldn't find a way to delete the comments. I also cannot report them...

predicted YES

@MartinModrak yeah, comments editing and deletion is really annoying, I have ongoing markets about when the devs will fix both of those

predicted YES

S&P at about $3820 now, so this is what it will have to beat.

predicted YES

@BoltonBailey Open today was 3,853.29. I think it's more likely that's what he meant.