31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?

76%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

IE will it end the year higher than it began?

This is question #31 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Bolton Baileyis predicting YES at 79%

See sheet 2 of this spreadsheet for Black-Scholes analysis.

Preenbought Ṁ100 of YES

The s&p500 has gone up in 70% of the last 80 years, and this year interest rates are high so it seems like a reasonable baseline to expect it to be above 70%. (and it's already up a few percent which is already >0.1 annual stds which is non-trivial, probably worth an extra percent or two)

Preenis predicting YES at 66%

@Preen I guess interest rates aren't actually that high by historical standards so maybe 70% is reasonable (though it is also up already a bit)

Should mimic

Jon Simonis predicting YES at 71%

@MartinModrak what's with the blank comments?

Jon Simonis predicting YES at 71%

@jonsimon oh wow now I see it. Weird bug

@jonsimon Sorry for the noise, I tried to link to a different market, but it for some reasons doesn't show and I couldn't find a way to delete the comments. I also cannot report them...

Jon Simonis predicting YES at 69%

@MartinModrak yeah, comments editing and deletion is really annoying, I have ongoing markets about when the devs will fix both of those

Bolton Baileyis predicting YES at 64%

S&P at about $3820 now, so this is what it will have to beat.

Stevenis predicting YES at 65%

@BoltonBailey Open today was 3,853.29. I think it's more likely that's what he meant.

Hugh Hoford bought Ṁ10 NO from 77% to 76%

Hugh Hoford bought Ṁ10 YES at 77%

Steven bought Ṁ200 YES from 75% to 77%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 75%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 75%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO from 76% to 75%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 76%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 76%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO from 77% to 76%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 77%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 77%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO at 77%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 77%

Tommy Eagle bought Ṁ10 NO at 78%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ10 YES at 78%

Bolton Bailey created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 80%

emcemc bought Ṁ30 YES at 78%

Steven bought Ṁ100 YES from 77% to 78%

Steven bought Ṁ50 YES from 76% to 77%

dedzy77 sold Ṁ10 YES at 76%

Steven bought Ṁ100 YES from 75% to 76%

Aaron Lehmann sold Ṁ12 NO at 75%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ43/Ṁ100 NO at 75% (cancelled)

Finn Hambly bought Ṁ35 NO from 77% to 76%

Pavel bought Ṁ30 NO from 78% to 77%

Bolton Bailey sold Ṁ78 YES from 79% to 78%

BCG bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Sam Casavant bought Ṁ10 NO at 79%

Hfdidiurht Idifhthdjdi bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Aaron Lehmann bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 79%

Simon Mendelsohn bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

Matthew van der Merwe sold Ṁ31 NO at 79%

tb bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

Collected Over Spread bought Ṁ30 YES at 78%

PryingMind bought Ṁ10 YES at 78%

IAmHereToParticipate sold Ṁ33 NO from 77% to 78%

Steven bought Ṁ200 YES from 75% to 77%

Julian Schüssler bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

Odoacre created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 60%

Plddp bought Ṁ35 NO from 76% to 75%

mr st33l bought Ṁ10 YES at 76%

Khaos bought Ṁ100 NO from 79% to 76%

Hannah Fox bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Code & Solder bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Will Hardt bought Ṁ100 YES from 78% to 79%

Moshe Levy bought Ṁ50 YES at 78%

Kacper Wikieł bought Ṁ85 YES from 77% to 78%

Nick bought Ṁ50 YES from 76% to 77%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 76%

Bolton Bailey bought Ṁ200 YES from 73% to 75%