IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This is question #31 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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We have about a 7% lead and in general stocks go up. This seems like a pure math question more than anything, and I’ll be slightly more bullish than whatever the raw numbers predict. AI impact isn’t directionally obvious for established firms. I don’t want to get updates on this so I’m sitting it out, put me down for basic math plus 1%.
The s&p500 has gone up in 70% of the last 80 years, and this year interest rates are high so it seems like a reasonable baseline to expect it to be above 70%. (and it's already up a few percent which is already >0.1 annual stds which is non-trivial, probably worth an extra percent or two)
@Preen I guess interest rates aren't actually that high by historical standards so maybe 70% is reasonable (though it is also up already a bit)
@jonsimon Sorry for the noise, I tried to link to a different market, but it for some reasons doesn't show and I couldn't find a way to delete the comments. I also cannot report them...
@MartinModrak yeah, comments editing and deletion is really annoying, I have ongoing markets about when the devs will fix both of those