26. Will the UK hold a general election in 2023?
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This is question #26 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I never understood such dynamics. The party in power is currently in exceedingly deep trouble if there was an election. Why would they allow one to happen when they don’t have to and they have nothing much to win anyway? The chances here should be quite low. The problem is that argument proves rather too much. I like betting on Sunak’s survival more, especially given where Metaculus is. I’m buying M10 of YES for tracking purposes since I’d be OK hedging by betting on Sunak.
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