26. Will the UK hold a general election in 2023?
85
273
Ṁ32KṀ1.6K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is question #26 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ210 | |
2 | Ṁ138 | |
3 | Ṁ65 | |
4 | Ṁ32 | |
5 | Ṁ28 |
Sort by:
I never understood such dynamics. The party in power is currently in exceedingly deep trouble if there was an election. Why would they allow one to happen when they don’t have to and they have nothing much to win anyway? The chances here should be quite low. The problem is that argument proves rather too much. I like betting on Sunak’s survival more, especially given where Metaculus is. I’m buying M10 of YES for tracking purposes since I’d be OK hedging by betting on Sunak.
Related questions
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
Will the next UK general election take place before 1 September 2024?
Will a UK General Election be held during Q2 2024?
8% chance
What will be the exact date of the next UK general election?
Will the date of the UK General Election be announced in September 2024?
37% chance
Will a UK General Election be held during Q4 2024?
84% chance
Will a uk general election be called in the latter six months of 2024?
82% chance
Will a uk general election be called in the first six months of 2024?
5% chance
Will the polling gap between Labour and Conservative parties change before the 2024 UK General Election?
Will the next UK general election be held in 2024?
96% chance