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Huh, I guess sometimes Things Do Happen

https://twitter.com/Tasnimnews_Fa

Just deleted a post supposedly of the first picture of the crash site. I don’t know why they deleted it but that is enough now for me to sell all my Yes.

Edit: post was of an old photo

4 hours ago: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/05/who-would-benefit-from-ebrahim-raisis-death/678428/

"A source close to the presidency in Tehran told me that Raisi has been confirmed dead and that the authorities are looking for a way to report the news without causing mayhem. I have not been able to independently confirm this."

I hope and think not but 9% seems low to me. Why are people so low?

@nathanwei When is the last time someone survived a helicopter crash?

@capybara Quick Google search says only 20% are fatal

https://expresslegalfunding.com/what-do-helicopter-crash/#:~:text=The%20overall%20helicopter%20crash%20survival,survival%20rate%20is%20relatively%20good.

Even plane crashes have a >10% survival rate, no?

@nathanwei no contact from his satphone for ten hours and the weather conditions are ridiculously bad

@nathanwei TIL! Updating my opinion on general helicopter crashes. Reading that though, the weather conditions seem to not be in favour

@SemioticRivalry Ah OK. The relevance of the weather conditions is he might be dead now even if he survived the initial crash? Or is that it would have made the initial crash worse? Or something else?

A priori I think I would assign about 10% that his phone was destroyed in the impact but he’s still alive.

@nathanwei They haven’t been able to find the crash site, the time tables and area keep adjusting. Mountains, rain, and fog all factor in. If there was a conversation post crash, they would have recorded and played it by now, I think. It’s been about 11 hours and is just after midnight there now. If they didn’t find him in daylight, they won’t him now. If he required any medical attention post-crash, it’s likely his injuries will also factor in.

@nathanwei The FM and the governor of the province were on the helicopter and several other high-level officials so presumably they should have had several fail-safes for communication.

@SemioticRivalry Ok I’m convinced. Perhaps a small chance the weather is disrupting their communications. Or that Raisi is alive and very injured and they don’t want to publicize it. But I think 90% that he’s dead is reasonable.

if he was alive.. you'd think they would immediately say it no?

@Blomfilter I just read reports saying they are in contact with two surviving passengers. I'd argue that indicates a higher survival probability for the remaining passengers as well

Helicopter found:

https://aje.io/2sog0w?update=2911859

@smokey No, they took it back:

https://aje.io/2sog0w?update=2911891

How long does he need to survive for this to resolve affirmatively?

@RyanCarey I think week is fair? unless he will die from medical complications in a month? OK?

@5bd4 If he's well enough to appear on camera, he "survived", but I'm pretty sure it won't get that far.