This will resolve YES if the Our World in Data COVID-19 Data Explorer shows a 7-day rolling average of at least 100,000 confirmed cases any day before March 1, 2023. Otherwise this will resolve NO. We are talking about this chart:
This will not resolve YES based on any other evidence that there are at least 100,000 cases per day, just the chart above. Should that source be unavailable, this will resolve N/A. But it really has to be utterly unavailable, like a sustained 404 response or something. Inspired by this market with somewhat unclear rules:
If there are any remaining uncertainties about the resolution criteria, please ask. I will try to clear them up as quickly and unambiguously as I can.
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@DeadRhino I think the natural interpretation of the rules so far would be that any retroactive change would have to happen before the closing time to count, otherwise this market could potentially remain unresolvable indefinitely. So I’ll do it like that unless anyone objects.
I can’t promise to be around right at the closing time to resolve. But Our World In Data is pretty open source, so I’ll go by the time of any change on their GitHub when in doubt: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/ (not that I’m expecting any changes in the middle of the night UK time)
@NicoDelon Yes, I think that’s where we are. I do feel a bit bad since I made the question and also heavily bet in it. But I think that’s the straightforward interpretation of the description. I’m very open if anyone disagrees though, maybe we can do that things where we ask another user to adjudicate.
@1941159478 since you're liquidating your positions and betting heavily on NO on the Salem market I'm suspecting you don't think OWID will have updated in time. But I'm not sure I understand why.
@NicoDelon They've edited the GitHub issue to say they'll change on March 8: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/issues/2785
@1941159478 What’s the scenario in which this market resolves NO but the Salem market resolves YES?
@NicoDelon Barring another plot twist today, I’d say this market here seems like a clear NO (though again, I’m happy for anyone to come in and disagree).
For the Salem Center market, it seems at least conceivable to me that they care more about the spirit of the quest. This market here was explicitly designed to be persnickety from the beginning, but theirs was intended to be about China’s response to COVID, not OWID minutia.
@1941159478 I understand the conditions of this market. I’m still surprised they’re not more closely aligned.
@NicoDelon Yeah, the mirror on the main Manifold seems like the odd one out compared to this and the salemcenter.manifold.markets original. My guess is that’s mostly just @BTE outspending everyone. Like, I'd buy more NO there if all my money wasn't already there. Maybe most people just have better sense than us putting money in a market starting with "(new betting discouraged)". However that one resolve, we only have ourselves to blame.
@DeadRhino Thanks for the question! I’ll use the closing time of this question as a cutoff, March 1 5:00 am GMT.
Another clarification to be totally clear: This will also resolve YES if Our World in Data retroactively changes their data before March 1 so that the chart shows a 7-day rolling average of at least 100,000 confirmed cases on some day before the retroactive change. Indeed, they are currently planning such a change: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/issues/2785
I hope no-one understood the question differently and bet on that basis. If someone did, I am happy to reimburse them for any losses up until now.