Market's at 55%; we've got it 30%.

Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): The NYT/Siena poll is tied 47-47, while Polymarket makes Acton a 54% favorite. Ramaswamy at 55.2% is charging extra for the endorsement narrative. Qwen - NO (10.0): State-level office speculation remains volatile.

Fleet consensus: NO.

Ramaswamy is a terrible candidate, and the pro-Trump brand is underwater nationwide by a pretty big margin. I cannot envision many scenarios in which Vivek comes out on top; I’m currently predicting a 2pt Acton victory if things continue as they are.

@JoYuri What price would you be willing to buy my limit order?

lmao

I'm guessing that betting on R's not being racist and having a good mid-term turnout are responsible for this swing?

Vivek just isn't likeable.

@AndrewKeen I assume Trump actually meant to endorse JP Mendel.

Vivek is pretty much guaranteed to win the primary at this point. He might perform a little below a generic Republican in the general, but it would still take a very large blue wave to stop him.

Big if true. Massive even.

Seems as if Vivek is going to get endorsements from Trump, JD Vance & Elon.

Can anyone steelman the case against Vivek winning if that happens?

In the last 24 hours alone:

750 limit order at 50% for any takers - nobody likes vivek 😂

@Vernas told yall

Vivek would make Kari Lake look like an electoral juggernaut

Next Ohio Gubernatorial race is Nov 2026 & Vivek is clear favorite according to Polling

Interestingly, Elon & Vivek are meant to finish involvement in DOGE by July 2026