Which team will win Super Bowl LIX?
➕
Plus
343
Ṁ300k
Feb 10
53%
Kansas City Chiefs
47%
Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl LIX (59) will be played on Sunday, February 9, 2025.

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Analyze and predict accordingly.

@Predictor why is this table skipping some years?

@Bayesian May have been bye years or something, I haven’t really looked into it.

@Bayesian presumably in some years they are both traveling in the same direction?

@Ziddletwix e.g. '25 is a rematch of '23, but in '23 both teams travelled west to AZ

@Ziddletwix Guys, Chiefs are going to lose. That’s what it means, that’s the analysis and that’s where we’re at with all of this.

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 64% order

@Predictor years when the Super Bowl was a bye?

@Manifold so are you closing it? I would like to transfer my mana to the market open for live trading lol.

@JaredAsh currently discussing whether to try and keep just the mana market open to experiment with how it performs and close it as soon as the site starts to lag.

Will let you know once we make a final decision.

@traders we are considering closing this market before the game starts (we aren't sure how a multi-market with 30+ answers will perform with lots of live trading + liquidity will be worse).

Instead, we will leave the following market open for live trading: https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-IAPZqhzypP?play=false

If anyone feels like this would make their current positions difficult as they were planning to exit as the game went on, please let us know.

@Manifold yes, please don't do that. I was planning to change my position entirely to the chiefs

@Manifold I'm only okay with this if you don't apply the new fees to this market. I own yes on both teams.

sold 𝕊6.74 YES

@Manifold Keeping it open is definitely better for traders. Given that the site was working fine during the election, I don't think that there will be too much of an issue and an open market which is crashing is still better than a closed market.

The reason to close it would be more to save Manifold around $2000 liquidity, which seems like a good reason to do so.

@HillaryClinton I think you should be fine and it will be net profit because this is a dependent multichoice market. If this was an independent market then it might be different. But, Stephen will confirm once he is available.

@Manifold How come the fees are applying retroactively though

@bagelfan Yea I agree, they should make only new markets have fees. But since this settles after February 3rd, so it's ambiguous.

@Manifold Will this affect the mana-only market?

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@Calibrate see above comment, will post updates there

@mods will fees be charged on the net profit at resolution? Or per each team?

I have money on both the chiefs and the eagles which could hurt me with the new fees.

@HillaryClinton Good question, please advise @SG

@Manifold Interesting. I see updated language that now the fee is charged on net profit at the time of resolution. Thanks for updating!

Get ready for it.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401671889/chiefs-eagles

This is notably different than most bookmakers' odds distributions.

@No_uh I saw that, feel free to invest some and move it to those odds. I'll buy some when it's at those odds.

@JaredAsh Not sure how I feel really. I think ESPN Analytics might not be as good, and maybe this should be ignored. Really don't know what to do yet LOL. but i'm thinking about it.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 53% order

@No_uh Nothing is consistently better than the bookies. ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

@Riley12 i know/trust/believe that. baby but ssaly i cant access this link :( maybe country restricted

@No_uh You can try this NFL Ratings PT AWARDS I don't see why it would work but the other wouldn't but try

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