This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,766 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4,335 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,336 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2,203 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2,170 |
https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com/post/3m4nwuzrlz52d
polymarket prices this at 18%, and polling is much closer than i expected (sherrill +3, with a 2021 level of polling error ciattarelli would win by 2), but early vote looks decent for dems based on this thread. 10% seems about right to me
@SaviorofPlant Polymarket has a lot of people cheer betting, rather than realistically assessing the odds