
Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?
102
1.5kṀ27kresolved Aug 14
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Performance: As measured by MMLU or Lmsys Arena against any GPT4 series variant
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ5,789 | |
2 | Ṁ2,609 | |
3 | Ṁ933 | |
4 | Ṁ909 | |
5 | Ṁ800 |
People are also trading
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
39% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025
64% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
76% chance
Sort by:
Should resolve YES, at least based on Lmsys performance and probably also based on MMLU scores. xAI just announced Grok-2 including results on both benchmarks:


the minimum of gpt-4 or maximum? is beating gpt-4-0613 enough?
People are also trading
Related questions
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
39% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025
64% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
76% chance