Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?
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19k
Dec 31
53%
chance

Performance: As measured by MMLU or Lmsys Arena against any GPT4 series variant

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The lowest performing gpt-4 model is a fairly low bar now

bought Ṁ10 YES

i put this at 70% because gpt-4-0613 had very weak performance

bought Ṁ100 YES

That's an inclusive or, right? It only has to beat any GPT-4 on either MMLU or LMSYS, not both?

the minimum of gpt-4 or maximum? is beating gpt-4-0613 enough?

@CampbellHutcheson "any GPT4 series variant"

beating any GPT-4 variant on lmsys isn't that hard these days. Claude Haiku beats gpt-4-0613

bought Ṁ50 YES from 52% to 54%

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