In Austin's farewell post:
James, Stephen, and the rest of the team have a big pivot in store; it seems like a great bet, but not something that I personally feel drawn towards enacting. And so, now feels like a good time to step out.
James made a response:
Manifold may indeed have been trapped in a local maxima, but not for long! We always have another fresh idea, another trick up our sleeves. The latest secret project for Manifold will be big.
/strutheo/will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-announc-523737967640
Related questions
@Panfilo hmm i read this as 'about certain issues' as in war/death/etc
but i also get your interpretation here, since it says 'certain scenarios'
might na or ask a mod
@strutheo I am NO on this, and at first I thought it wasn't real-money betting, but now, I think I was wrong and it is.
is it confirmed they are doing money only, not giftcards?
@strutheo I sold out of this one because it seems unclear—cash is what's confirmed, but the notion doc does off-hand briefly mention gift cards as maybe something in consideration in the future.
We are exploring many other win point redemption options including digital goods / cosmetics on Manifold, merch, gift cards, and cash.
@strutheo also the very similar looking option in the Spice market is super high? so i'm steering clear of this one seems too unclear
@SG ok will wait til market close - any reason to even offer this if you're already offering money? now im curious
Surprised this is so low—10x devaluation of a currency whose promise had been “donate this to EA causes” for many folks? With a pivot into real money betting. It’s good they’re trying to make charity donations “whole” for those who reach out but still seems like this clears the trivially low bar (see: meeting notes where they say EA people are upset)
@Tyler31 I just skimmed over again and don’t see it explicitly called out. May have been wishful thinking about some of the ambiguous comments.
@Tyler31 They want to encourage this, but none of the changes made in the pivot encourage it (In fact, they strongly discourage it). Currently, it sounds like they are trying to come up with a way to incentivize it without loans, but don't have any concrete plans yet. Maybe they will come up with something eventually, but it won't be part of the original pivot.
Can someone explain some speculative mechanics here? Wikipedia for "sweepstakes" (which they link to in their doc) mentions
"Today, sweepstakes in the United States are used as marketing promotions to reward existing consumers and to draw attention to a product.[2] By definition, the winner is determined by pure random chance rather than skill.[6]"
(Bolding added. Note, [6] is a dead link)
It seems difficult to argue that forecasting / prediction is not a game of skill. It seems like could work if just award Prize Points no matter the outcome just for making a prediction, but the scheme of "Starting May 1st, 2024, users will receive prize points from markets that resolve in their favor at a rate of M1 : ₩1,...." doesn't seem compatible.
Is that Wikipedia definition just wrong? Some other scheme? They link to Fliff and Chumba, but it's unclear how these work.
@Anonculously they are gambling on a legal grey area and talking to lawyers, in a month they might tell them this pivot isnt allowed.
@strutheo thanks for comment. I don't think this fully answers it. Or if it really is just a "🤷 we don't know a legal way to do this, but we'll try it until we're told no" situation, seems like a mistake, with better alternatives.