Context: Manifold is pivoting to a new business model based on real cash prizes under a sweepstakes model. In the pivot announcement, Manifold mentioned the social sports betting company Fliff as representative of the sweepstakes model they're pursuing. I read this as "Manifold is to be like Fliff, but for user-generated questions about anything, not just centrally-created/managed questions about sports."
As such, being aware of how Fliff operates should provide insight into how Manifold may operate in the future. So:
In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff by end of year?
Suggest new answers in comments and I'll add them. Initial answers came after my reading of Fliff's Sweepstakes rules, Terms of Use, and functionality described on the Fliff marketing site and in YouTube videos. Ask clarifying questions in comments.
For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are related to implementation of the PivotTM and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.
Any names referring to a thing, (i.e. "Prize Points" for promotional sweepstakes entries, "Mana" for play money) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing, even if the name of that thing changes. I will update answers to reflect new names as soon as I can/am made aware.
Here's a similar question, though I suspect there may be disagreement about whether this pivot is indeed "real money trading":
Related questions
I don't really know where to ask this. Fliff is not available in my region (Germany). Can Manifold ensure that users in Germany or other EU countries can continue to use the site with or without sweepstakes after these changes?
Edit: found the Discord.
@redcat The best info we have at this point about non-US availability is this announcement:
Q: Will I be eligible to earn cash prizes outside the US?
A: Probably. There are a few provinces, jurisdictions, and countries that prohibit sweepstakes, but we believe most locales our users reside will be supported.
I'd bet that Manifold will definitely be available in Germany as it does now for use with mana (play money) but depending on legislation there, you may or may not be eligible for the sweepstakes element that would enable you to get mana converted into Prize Points (then redeemable for cash or other prizes).
I spent a lot of time studying (and reading legal documentation about) Fliff, inspiration for the Manifold Pivot to a real cash prize model.
I put this market together because I think it provides key insights into how Manifold may function upon implementation of real cash prizes. Take a look!
Fliff kind of did this and users were super pissed. It set a really bad line, users pounced on it, cashed out, but then Fliff took away their winnings. Not sure if they reversed after the backlash. See:
This perhaps my most interesting finding in the legalese - I presume this is how Fliff ensures some claim to randomness in its sweepstakes games. Easy enough to do when it's setting sports lines that presumably are intended to be at 50% likelihood; how would Manifold implement this? Only trades made before market is at 75% can be redeemed for Prize Points? Could get messy...
These and other "X residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes" are likely direct results of sweepstakes regulation in those states, so unlikely that they won't be in place at Manifold as well, unless Manifold simply doesn't implement sweepstakes by market close.