# Zygohistomorphic's calibration

Grade: B-, Score: -3.94

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Zygohistomorphic bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

- Will Scott Alexander review Tim Urban's (Wait But Why) book 'What's Our Problem' on Astral Codex Ten in 2023?YESṀ15
- Will Ron DeSantis win at least three states in the Republican primaries?NOṀ10
- Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?NOṀ10

50%

60%

70%

80%

- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ100
- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ100
- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ100

90%

- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ400
- Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster pack by the end of 2027?YESṀ80
- Will @firstuserhere walk over 85,000 steps on 21 Decemeber 2023?YESṀ50

95%