Pls

Feb 14, 4:20pm: Will resolve as YES even if there are restrictions, e.g. "no editing after first bet is placed"

This market resolves to YES if any Tweet is posted via @Snowden (https://twitter.com/Snowden) indicating that indicates that the war with Ukraine needs to stop or is a negative thing by February 28th, 2022. This market resolves to NO if no Tweet is posted by the same date.

Feb 24, 7:28pm: (Does not apply to any Manifold Markets participant named @Snowden)

Politics

Ukraine-Russia war

This market will be resolved by @jdcmedlock on twitter reporting if Midnight has or has not let him pet her

YouTube

Daliban HQ

Destiny.gg

Weather

I want to test if Manifold Market can be cashed out indirectly. I will donate $50 to Wikipedia foundation in February if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $50. 

If you want to indirectly donate your $M to Wikipedia, buy NO

Mar 1, 6:59pm: The market closed at 19%, which produces $M120 profit after ante investment of $M100. The $M120 can be bought for just $1.2, so the condition for donating to Wikipedia is not satisfied.

Technology

Formal Methods

🤠 Fun

Manifold Users

🎲 Unranked

Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th resolves #1.

Free Money

This market resolves to YES if there is a worldwide consensus that WWIII has begun by the end of 12/31/2022, as evidenced by media and government proclamation.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Global Macro

Magic: The Gathering

Personal Goals

Resolves at the end of February

Feb 14, 5:36pm: Once this market closes, on Feb 28, I will resolve it as "YES" if and only if the total pool size is evenly divisible by 2. Otherwise, I'll resolve as "NO"

Looking for outright repeal or real reform. I may resolve to 50% if there are token changes that don't solve the problem.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the ICM is held within the year at St. Petersburg. It resolves to 'No' if the ICM is held somewhere else, cancelled, or delayed past the end of 2022.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Science

This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD.
 Date: 02/03/2022
14:45<Honourary> 
Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server.
He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue.
Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit.
So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead.
14:47 <chuzz> 
Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins?
14:49 <TheSkeward> 
true!
14:50 <Honourary> 
I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market.
14:51 <TheSkeward> 
set one up on manifold.markets
link it widely around the discord
I will be following it avidly
fortunes could be won or lost

So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place.

Jun 9, 5:16pm: I received a notification that the free choice market for the future administrator was resolved, as well as an email notifying me about nfd's bet. I quickly emailed TheSkeward to get confirmation, as I wanted to prevent front-running if an official announcement had been made. After TheSkeward confirmed for me that Zenbu had been picked and that furthermore she had accepted, I logged onto Manifold Markets and resolved the market. 
I acknowledge that the original description  says that it will resolved only after TheSkeward has stepped down and the replacement has taken power, but in hindsight unless there are exigent circumstances I decided that resolving early following the announcement was more honourable than waiting for an official change of command ceremony to be completed and enabling further market distorting front-running of the event to happen. If this premature action was honourable or dishonourable I leave to @Gurkenglas to decide.
On a personal note, this market was made on a whim, as a joke. I never expected it to be one of the largest markets on Manifold, and when I first made it, I thought only fellow members of the ACX Discord would participate. The stuff with Spindle, the large amounts of money injected into the market, the large swings, the derivative market by @Gurkenglas about me resolving Honourably or not, and the final flourish of getting mentioned by Scott Alexander in his Substack was to be honest, a bit of an emotional roller coaster. 
I started this thinking all Prediction Markets are kind of a joke, and finished it with a much greater understanding after going down countless rabbit holes about what they were and how they are valuable to society. I never asked for this, I never expected the responsibility of resolving a 1.5 million M$ market.
This is been quite the learning and growing experience for me. Thanks for everyone who participated and congratulations to Zenbu!

Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes.

The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market as soon as possible instead of waiting for an hour (since, presumably, the implied probability of a resolved market is not going to change).

This question is inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a, but hopefully can't be gamed as easily.

Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES, regardless of it's implied probability at the time. This is not what I originally intended, but Gurkenglas convinced me that this way is better.

February MTG tournament

Meta-markets on improper resolution

Whales vs. Minnows

TIME Person of the Year

OpenAI Crisis

Your Book Review: Njal’s Saga

ACX Book Review Contest

Self-resolving

Whale Watching

Non-Predictive

Controversial markets

Meta-Forecasting

Predictions on Predictions

PredictIt

💪 Personal Goals

Health and Fitness

🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024

US 2022 Elections

US Politics

Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post reviewing Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines and Eliezer Yudkowsky's response at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works . The post is about 10,000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 100+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post).

Feb 17, 4:30pm: On rereading this, the title and description are slightly different; I'm going to go with the title and say this only wins if it gets MORE THAN 100 likes, ie 101+

twitch.tv/justlolaman

Movies

Box Office Stats

Manifold

Economics

Scandal Markets

Zygohistomorphic

Trust

This market resolves to YES if there are at least 350 combined Approvals and Tentative Approvals listed for February 2022 on this webpage: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm?event=reportsSearch.process.  Otherwise it resolves to NO.

The market closes at the time listed below, and will be resolved on March 2nd in order to allow time for reporting.

This market resolves to "YES" on March 2, 11:59PM EST if President Biden makes any claim during the 2022 SOTU Address that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, using language similar to "the nation has DEFEATED COVID" or "we can now declare victory over COVID" or "the long national nightmare of COVID is finally over". High five for those predicting "YES" if you also predict the exact phrasing!

This market resolves to Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-vaclav-havels-the-power does not resolve to N/A.

📈 Stocks

🏦 Economics

▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲

Death markets

Jimmy Carter

The number of readers shows up on the landing page below the book cover on the left, I'm currently at 10 as of first posting this.

Here is a free code for Manifold users:

https://leanpub.com/probabilityforlemurs/c/6OMiYNaqgAj6_manifold

* I'm a first time author, to quote another person on Manifold, I'm basically just some jabroni. 
* Like many on Manifold, I have an interest in predictions, which means Probability Theory can play a role. However I often find it difficult to deeply grok probabilistic concepts and end up making emotional decisions the vast majority of the time. "Probability for Lemurs," is my effort to explain Probability Theory from primitives with the hope of helping people internalize concepts better and make better decisions.
* I'm promoting it on Twitter, Linkedin, my social networks, etc.
* Vote NO to subsidize the market.

Isaac King

King Isaac

superconductivity

⚡ LK-99

Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours.

Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%!

Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks to floatingpointiness.

Feb 19, 6:00pm: I would*

Feb 20, 2:03pm: If the conditions are not satisfied by the time the market closes, the market resolves NO. It doesn't matter if the market is above or below 75% at that time.

Feb 22, 12:35am: I accidentally resolved this market when I meant to resolve one of my other markets :(
Please vote on https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong

Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) trades at or above 75% any time before March 1, 2022.

Close date updated to 2022-02-21 4:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:00 pm

Feb 21, 5:00pm: @Duncan has closed the market on the underlying, so I'm closing here as well. (I accidentally unclosed the market by mistake, so I re-closed it again.) I may wait until the underlying market resolves in case @Duncan un-closes it.

Feb 22, 7:19pm: @Duncan briefly reopened his market and the underlying went to a max of 73% before resolving YES. Since there was never a trade at 75% or above, I am resolving NO.

This Market resolves to YES if on the day of closing, the Science community on Manifold Markets has *more* followers than any other community available from the list of communities here: https://manifold.markets/folds

Feb 13, 8:19pm: Currently at the time of market creation, Science is the most followed community.

Mar 1, 12:02am: Politics is currently 100 - 86, beating out Science. Resolving.

Eliezer Yudkowsky

📚 Books

Rationality

Harry Potter

HPMOR

Examples: 1234$ -> x^3+2x^2+3x+4
                    563$ ->  x^2+6x+3
               70 009$ -> 7x^4+9

Formal definition: Call the digits of the volume, in order, A(n-1),...,A0, where n is the number of digits. The polynomial in question is A(n-1)x^(n-1)+....+A0x^0.

Mar 3, 11:38am: second example should say 5x^2+6x+3

Mar 10, 10:33am: x=-3/4

This market will resolve to YES if the Codex discord server admin on Jan 1st, 2023 is the same as the top voted result in this poll on September 1st, 2022: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th

It will resolve to NO if the admin is someone different. If the server is shut down or otherwise there is no admin on Jan 1st, it will resolve to PROB.

Dwarf Fortress is a construction and management simulation and roguelike indie video game created by Bay 12 Games. Available as freeware and in development since 2002, its first alpha version was released in 2006 and it received attention for being a two-member project surviving solely on donations. In March 2019, a paid-for enhanced version of Dwarf Fortress was announced for Windows computers through Steam and itch.io, published by Kitfox Games. 
The release date in Steam is currently "time is subjective".

This market resolves YES if any playable version of Dwarf Fortress is released on Steam this year, even in Early Access. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Zygohistomorphic's calibration