zn's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.08
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when zn bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
- Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of 2023?NOṀ7,500
- Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023?NOṀ1,245
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ590
20%
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ1,100
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ300
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial (including sentencing) conclude before the end of 2023?NOṀ200
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%