Oct 1st - Dec 31st 2023: how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts/protests, according to ACLED?
resolved Jan 10
Fewer than 2400
Between 2400 and 3200, inclusive
Between 3201 and 4000, inclusive
Between 4001 and 4800, inclusive
Between 4801 and 5600, inclusive
More than 5600

Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (International Crisis Group). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Somalia" under "Eastern Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to "Battles," 108 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 269 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").

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