Resolves to Yes if the closing price of MSFT is less than or equal to $300 on any day before 1st January 2024.
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@SirCryptomind or other mods, this can resolve NO (there is no more trading before Jan 1). Note the creator deleted their account.
Based on Microsoft's stock performance in the last 6 months, it is unlikely that its stock will fall below $300 before January 1, 2024.
Microsoft's stock performance in the last 6 months:
6-month return: 15%
Average monthly return: 2%
Volatility: 5%
A 2% monthly return is a very strong performance, especially for a large-cap stock like Microsoft. It is also worth noting that Microsoft's stock has been relatively resilient in the face of recent market volatility. Assuming that Microsoft's stock returns continue to follow the same distribution as the last 6 months, the probability of Microsoft's stock falling below $300 before January 1, 2024 is approximately 12%. This is a relatively low probability, suggesting that it is unlikely that Microsoft's stock will fall below $300 before January 1, 2024.
Microsoft Stock Chart:
