Which of California's November 2024 ballot propositions will I vote YES on?
Basic
10
1.6k
Nov 8
63%
Proposition 2: Public Education Facilities Bond Measure
93%
Proposition 3: Right to Marry and Repeal Proposition 8 Amendment
65%
Proposition 4: Parks, Environment, Energy, and Water Bond Measure
63%
Proposition 5: Lower Supermajority Requirement to 55% for Local Bond Measures to Fund Housing and Public Infrastructure Amendment
97%
Proposition 6: Remove Involuntary Servitude as Punishment for Crime Amendment
52%
Proposition 32: $18 Minimum Wage Initiative
29%
Proposition 33: Prohibit State Limitations on Local Rent Control Initiative
37%
Proposition 34: Require Certain Participants in Medi-Cal Rx Program to Spend 98% of Revenues on Patient Care Initiative
46%
Proposition 35: Creation of New Healthcare Fund Initiative
50%
Proposition 36: Increase Drug and Theft Penalties and Reduce Homelessness Initiative

About my politics: I'm a registered Democrat and have been for substantially all of my adult life. I'm socially liberal and like markets, probably like many people reading this description on the Manifold Markets website. (People similar to me sometimes call themselves "neoliberal", though that word has a lot of baggage and means different things to different people.)

My intended use of this market is to solicit good arguments for or against these propositions, e.g. if you know a really good argument in favor of some proposition you can buy YES and then tell it to me. I'm not sure how much I'll be willing to tip my hand in comments, though probably at least a little.

I've set this market to resolve on election day, but I'll probably post my ballot on Substack sometime before then and resolve the market at that time. Resolution will be final even if my actual vote changes after I post my intended vote.

I will not bet on this market.

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I feel like I have a pretty strong prior on how to vote on most of these except 35 and 36. If you can persuade me on either of those you could make a lot of mana!

Do you default-NO all non-bond-measure propositions because of how they circumvent the legislature?

I tend to default NO on citizen initiatives, yeah. (The division is not quite bond measure v non-bond-measure, but my understanding is that this year 2-6 are from the legislature and 32-36 are from citizens.)

bought Ṁ50 Proposition 3: Right... YES

Prop 3: repeal the (currently void) ban on gay marriage in the California Constitution and protect gay marriage from any potential Supreme Court decision reversals https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2024/propositions/prop-3-same-sex-marriage/