About my politics: I'm a registered Democrat and have been for substantially all of my adult life. I'm socially liberal and like markets, probably like many people reading this description on the Manifold Markets website. (People similar to me sometimes call themselves "neoliberal", though that word has a lot of baggage and means different things to different people.)
My intended use of this market is to solicit good arguments for or against these propositions, e.g. if you know a really good argument in favor of some proposition you can buy YES and then tell it to me. I'm not sure how much I'll be willing to tip my hand in comments, though probably at least a little.
I've set this market to resolve on election day, but I'll probably post my ballot on Substack sometime before then and resolve the market at that time. Resolution will be final even if my actual vote changes after I post my intended vote.
I will not bet on this market.
Two local-ish newspapers have released their ballot initiative endorsements:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/10/03/bay-area-endorsements-november-5-california-ballot-measures/
https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2024/california-sf-election-endorsements/
I don't take these as gospel or anything.
Prop 3: repeal the (currently void) ban on gay marriage in the California Constitution and protect gay marriage from any potential Supreme Court decision reversals https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2024/propositions/prop-3-same-sex-marriage/