Will Trump be physically confined with any method (detained, jail, prison, house arrest, etc) for any reason (contempt, conviction, etc) for any duration?

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Does house arrest count? How about being restricted from leaving a specific metro area, state, or the USA?

@NeilG House arrest counts. While travel restrictions may in some cases be considered confinement, for this market I will consider a definition of physical confinement to be within an exact location (cell, jail, prison, house, etc) as opposed to a broad region.

@zaperrer My goal in specifying “physical confinement” is to distinguish being confined in a place such as a jail cell where the steel bars physically confine Trump from arbitrarily broad possible interpretations of “confinement” such as “confined in what he is allowed to say about Jurors”.

In the case of travel restrictions, there is still a large degree of freedom of movement, and very little in the way of physical barriers performing confinement.

Does accidentally locking himself in the toilet and needing help gettting out count?

@GazDownright As much as I would love to say yes, I think we have to exclude self confinement.

@zaperrer To count as confinement it must be imposed by authorities.

@zaperrer What if he’s on a plane stuck on the tarmac because of FAA?

@NicoDelon No. I would like to stick to traditional cases of legal physical confinement and not broad interpretations.

@zaperrer I understand but the ‘etc.’ in your description all but guarantee unanticipated edge cases.

@NicoDelon The etc is intended to include clear cases not explicitly listed. For example psychiatric confinement would count and would not be an edge case (unexpected but not unclear), but was not explicitly listed in the description.

@zaperrer I’ve spent enough time on Manifold to understand that ‘clear cases’ means different things to different people. It’s not about me, I don’t care, but don’t be surprised if people argue about cases.

@NicoDelon I understand and share your concern. I welcome any suggestions on how to define confinement for this market.

@NicoDelon How about defining it according to [United States v. Parks, 2010 U.S. App. LEXIS 18684 (8th Cir. Mo. Sept. 7, 2010)].

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