Will Al take 50% of human jobs before 2035?
Basic
4
Ṁ485
2035
3%
chance

Background:

There is controversy on whether Al will take away human jobs. The way to resolve this is to know whether Al will create more jobs than it destroys. The best way to measure the net jobs is to calculate (new jobs - lost jobs) is the unemployment rate.

Resolution Criteria:

The question will resolve to YES if the unemployment rate in the USA reaches 50% or higher.

Fine Print:

This question is only concerned with the unemployment rate not the number of hours worked per week. If that number goes from 40 hours/week to 20 hours/week or less that will not matter to the

resolution of this question.

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The confounder here is that it requires people who are permanently out of work to survive long enough to be counted, while being supported by less than 50% of the population actually producing goods and services. This requires a number of technical and political decision points to go very well, in a way that there's currently little indication that they will.

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