yaboi69
@yaboi69Trading profits
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You can gift a DGG sub for 1000 mana now
In case you missed it: https://manifold.markets/destinygg.0
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Vague market ideas
Nothing clever. May update from time to time. Obviously, if you like one and can deliver it to the markets, feel completely free to run with it.
[importance: 7/10, fun: 2/10, difficulty: 6/10] Various disaster risks
Floods, droughts, earthquakes, wildfires, terrorism, coups, …
Informal evaluation (media) vs. academic and legal criteria (e.g. state of emergency/natural disaster)
Difficult but non-zero value add – limited predictability
[importance: 7/10, fun: 3/10, difficulty: 7/10] Scientific consensus on health effects of X (vs not X)
Drinking alcohol. (How much? How long?)
Particulate matter air pollution (What kinds? How much? How long?) (Made one: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-the-who-global-air-quality-gui)
Vaping. (What? How much? How long?)
Eating red meat. Sugar. Smoked meats. Saturated, trans fats. (How much? How long?)
What sources? When? What measure?
Preferably GRADE approach meta-analytic reviews from WHO, Cochrane, etc., before 2030
Criteria for source evaluation: what authorities and methods are trusted more (standard: RCTs, meta-analyses, peer-review, WHO, AMA)
Quality-adjusted life months, elevated risk of illness
[importance: 6/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 6/10] New technologies
Gene editing will have cured at least one major disease by 2025 (https://twitter.com/sama/status/1081584255510155264) (Made one: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-gene-editing-have-cured-at-lea)
[importance: 6/10, fun: 2/10, difficulty: 4/10] Wars
Will Ukraine receive cluster munitions from the US in 2023? (Made one: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-the-us-openly-commit-in-2023-t)
Will the conflict in [Yemen, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Somalia] quiet down/end in 2023?
A peace treaty, cease-fire, fewer than 1000 deaths?
[importance: 6/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 7/10] Unusual risks
Will a rare space weather event happen in 2023
R5, S5, and/or G5 event on NOAA scales?
[importance: 4/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 4/10] Various big policy proposals and their effects
A shorter work week adopted in a specific place – will it happen? How will GDP/employment/etc. change?
Minimum wage – likewise
Rent control
Retirement age changes
Immigration
Free trade agreements
[importance: 4/10, fun: 5/10, difficulty: 3/10] Campaign promises
In some cases ready-made trackers exist, e.g. https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/biden-promise-tracker/, https://www.politifact.com/florida/promises/desant-o-meter/
[importance: 5/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 5/10] Public works
Will this new bus lane/highway lane alleviate traffic
Uber’s Movement, BTS Travel Time Index, TomTom Traffic Index
[importance: 3/10, fun: 5/10, difficulty: 4/10] Conspiracy theories
Will the USA introduce a social credit score before 2025?
Will an authentic Obama birth certificate show he was not a natural-born citizen
How many people will be reported jailed under Canadian “Bill C-16” in 2023
…
[importance: 2/10, fun: 6/10, difficulty: 4/10] Pop-culture
Revival (or death) of video game genres
MUDs, RTS, augmented reality
various popularity rankings on Steam, Twitch, YouTube
[importance: 2/10, fun: 3/10, difficulty: 2/10] Academic award predictions
Who will win the John Bates Clark Medal [May]
Who will win the ACM Turing Award [April]
…0
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Quick link to Manifold Discord for feedback and updates
Link: https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh. We’re in #destiny-gg. If you’re a tinkerer, select the “power user” role to see #dev-and-api. That’s it, cheers.0
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Destiny.gg
Markets related to Destiny the streamer and destiny.gg community.
Thanks to MrGemzar for letting us use his art as a header image.
Subs
We can now redeem 1000 mana for a DGG Tier 1 subscription on https://manifold.markets/destinygg.
General advice
The website is made for classic bets. “Stocks” are messier, but they mostly work OK.
Sort the markets by “newest”, “closing soon” etc. to scoop interesting deals.
Filter out terms in the search by using the minus sign, e.g. -permanent
Use limit orders to target a specific probability range.
It’s a general-purpose platform, our community is one of many playing here. You may find questions that interest you in other public groups too.
More advice has been posted below in the official “Welcome explanation for newcomers from Destinygg!”
When creating new DGG markets
Be sure to add to the “Destiny.gg” group for discoverability, and as a courtesy for non-DGG users for whom this is alien stuff and who have this group hidden.
Peek at DGG Void’s quick advice on wording a bet well.
Descriptions, images, and clear criteria help your market stand out.
For “stock” markets, there are talks on pitfalls and possible improvements on how they operate, e.g. “How to make orbiter stocks better.”
The website rules are very permissive for now, we’ll keep an eye out if anything changes affecting us (cf. community guidelines, best practices when creating markets).
Related Groups
Destiny.gg Stocks.
Initial discussions and comments on the subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/y850pq/heres_how_to_trade_orbiter_stocks_a_prediction/, https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/ydqi84/creating_the_orbiter_stock_market/.0
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Manifold DGG subs “are due to end on the 9th”
If you’re swimming in mana, good job, and just letting you know: “https://manifold.markets/destinygg – make sure you claim your Destiny tier-1 subscription for M$1000 if you haven't yet. The program is due to end on the 9th (it's possible it may be extended, but can't guarantee it)”.
Alternatively, consider charity: https://manifold.markets/charity.0
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Factorio completion markets – a scratchpad
I think that market creators were well-intentioned and that there’s a strong presumption people knew most markets were about spaceship victory – or in practical terms, about what Feb 3rd stream was. It’s suboptimal we didn’t iron out the criteria, but that can simply be difficult.
The “secret ending” one might be the most reasonable and fair for me to refund, but it may take a couple of days before I commit.
I don’t have any more thoughts to share right now, just want to collate basic information about markets (and their discussions) to keep an eye on. The numbers are provisional and likely somewhat wrong.
“Finish Factorio”
https://manifold.markets/dggL/will-destiny-finish-factorio-in-the
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio in the next "day or two"?”
Description: “Closes if he claims to have finished factorio before the resolve date.”
Affects: 103 people, Ṁ74770
https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-destiny-finish-factorio-before-42a317a7aaf9
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio before February 6th?”
Description: –
Affects: 56 people, Ṁ4511
https://manifold.markets/Geko1701/will-destiny-finish-factorio-during
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio before the end of the February 2nd stream?”
Description: –
Affects: 16 people, Ṁ3010
https://manifold.markets/PatrickNotthestarfish/will-destiny-finish-factorio-before-dea2c2333fcb
Question: “Will destiny finish factorio before March 1st”
Description: –
Affects: 3 people, Ṁ380
https://manifold.markets/zarth/will-factorio-end-before-232023-115
Question: “Will Factorio end before 2/3/2023 11:59pm?”
Description: “Will resolve in a YES if Destiny finishes factorio before Feb 3rd (…)”
Affects: 6 people, Ṁ228.
https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-destiny-finish-factorio-before-9e20dfd62fc0
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio before February 4th?”
Description: –
Affects: 4 people, Ṁ152
https://manifold.markets/Sognik/will-destiny-finish-the-factorio-sp-cf485a6c6134
Question: “Will Destiny finish the Factorio Space Exploration Modpack before February 6th, 2023?”
Description: –
Affects: 5 people, Ṁ60
https://manifold.markets/MorbisMIA/what-comes-first-mrmouton-finishes
Question: “What comes first, MrMouton finishes a Minecraft SR or Destiny finishes Factorio?”
Description: –
Affects: 1 person, Ṁ50
“Complete or quit”
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of February?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 20 people, Ṁ600
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the-37346f4ec9b5
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of March?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 6 people, Ṁ71
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the-9f0d978ad726
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of May?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 4 people, Ṁ45
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the-514825d1d5ac
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of April?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 3 people, Ṁ36
“Finish or indicate he’s done”
https://manifold.markets/Ahdaymz/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-feb
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by Feb. 15th?”
Description: “Will resolve as yes if Destiny indicates he is done playing Factorio on or before Feb 15th (…)”
Affects: 61 people, Ṁ8079
“Completes secret ending without a break”
https://manifold.markets/market/will-destiny-go-for-the-secret-endi
Question: “Will Destiny go for the "secret ending"?”
Description: “YES if completes secret ending. NO if doesn't, or choses to come back and finish later.”
Affects: 36 people, Ṁ13171
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