yaboi69's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.03
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when yaboi69 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ10,000
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ1,015
- Destiny just said on stream that he thinks around 300 people are coming for the Georgia canvassing event. Will at least 300 people be there?YESṀ300
80%
90%
95%
97%