Resolves YES if Apple acquires at least one surprising company, for at least $10 billion in total, in 2023; broadly speaking, the acquisition must be considered a diversification – expand beyond Apple's core business in electronic devices and directly related services and platforms. The acquisition must be confirmed by Apple and reported on by mainstream media sources.

Resolves NO if Apple does not make acquisitions that meet the above criteria before the end of 2023.

$10 billion is a proxy for an order of magnitude of companies like Fiat Chrysler. “Surprising choice” will be evaluated subjectively, as it can include acquiring companies like Disney, whose sector is arguably already somewhat represented in Apple’s portfolio (Apple TV+).

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

David Friedberg: “[Prediction for the biggest business deal of 2023.] So my wild card is I think Apple ends up buying something completely out of the ordinary. I think Apple's core business, they're facing significant pressure with respect to their relationship and ties to China. (…) They're also under a lot of political pressure because of the app store revenues. (…) There's also the pressure with respect to the waning consumer demand for high end electronics. (…) So when you put all of this together, (…) they have to do something big to kind of diversify the business. So I think they might end up doing something like buying a real content company, maybe they do something like buy Disney, Maybe they do something like buy an automotive company, like Fiat Chrysler. I think there are number of these, what may seem today, outrageous deals that Apple might end up kind of being pressured into. (…) I certainly have no insight or intel on anything or I could be completely wrong on this one, but it feels like they've got to do something this year in order to keep that business growing.”

Jason Calacanis: “I mean, now with Tesla, with this depressed stock price, Apple can make a run at Tesla. They could almost buy it with cash, let alone BMW, Volvo, one of those brands they could buy easily. What a great prediction.”