Will Itamar Ben-Gvir get a private militia?
resolved Jan 2



Resolves YES if it is announced in 2023 that Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's Minister of National Security, will be personally placed in charge of a "national guard" with substantial powers. The national guard should have at least 100 people, and take on responsibilities or actions which the police or other security force would not have done otherwise.

Example that would count:

  • Being given responsibility to secure a high-profile area which is not currently secured

  • Securing a certain area or executing police duties in a manner more prejudicial or violent than is currently done

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predicted NO

I think it's pretty clear that this did not happen. Would anyone like to dispute a NO resolution?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

You need to elaborate more what is "personaly in charge", if it will be part of Magav, it won't consider personally in charge, right?

predicted YES

@CarmelHadar If it is part of Magav, why couldn’t Ben-Gvir be personally in charge of it? By that phrase, I don’t mean that he is the commander in charge, but rather that he is overseeing their operations.

predicted NO


I don't understand, ofc he will be overseeing, he is the minister. That is the job description. There is already a national guard.

So all this market is just misunderstanding misleading framing of the questions?

predicted NO

@xyz Fwiw the whole "personal militia" idea is based on Netanyahu promising for it to be outside of existing security forces, under directly under Ben-gvir department.

I agree that there are cases where it's under magav but the market should still resolve YES.

However, no one would, for example, call the IDF the defense minister's personal army even though he both oversees them and is in the chain of command.

Say the National guard is moved to magav, assigned 1000 policemen and they're tasked with protecting people in the negev against Bedouin thieves. Would you consider that a YES resolution?

predicted YES

@Shai You're right that no one considers the IDF the defense minister's personal army, but that's because there is a long chain of command which inhibits his influence on operations. If Ben-Gvir were to bypass that chain of command and be in charge of the head of the unit, even within magav, without those layers of command in between, I would have much higher credence that he is "personally in charge."

Re your hypothetical, how does it sound if I count it as YES as long as Ben-Gvir in directly in charge of the National guard chief, bypassing the magav and national police chain of command?

predicted NO

@xyz seems very reasonable.

predicted NO

yes that is part of the problem with your framing of the question as "privet" militia.
i think you should withdraw the question, it is very deceptive, and most of the positions based on misunderstanding the question.
and i the result is too depend on your personal judgment and less on something measurable.

predicted YES

@CarmelHadar What do you find deceptive about the question?

predicted NO
predicted NO

If you have strong opinions about Israeli politics:

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Ben Gvir rolls out plan for 2,000-officer gendarmerie force under his command: https://www.timesofisrael.com/ben-gvir-rolls-out-plan-for-2000-officer-gendarmerie-force-under-his-command/amp/

bought Ṁ40 of NO

I wonder why @botlab is so invested in this

bought Ṁ110 of NO

Netanyahu is a liar who is notorious for breaking his political promises, that's part of the reason they tried to get the overhaul done so quickly. The political price of fulfilling this promise in particular is massive, it's not gonna happen.

predicted NO

Context about the "national guard" from Wikipedia:
https://he.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%9E%D7%A8_%D7%94%D7%9C%D7%90%D7%95%D7%9E%D7%99_%D7%A9%D7%9C_%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C [Hebrew link]
TL;DR: The "national guard" was already set up at June 2022

predicted YES

So basically, the jew-stapo.

I recommend also defining some things like "the national guard will have at least 100 people" and "will actually do something negligible, that the police wouldn't have just done anyway"

I'm saying this because maybe Bibi is just distracting Ben-Gvir by giving him "responsibility" of a thing that doesn't exist

@YonatanCale *do something non-negligible

@YonatanCale Thanks! Updated the description